**Ongoing near-Earth object monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS and ESA systems shows no asteroids large enough for a 10kt+ airburst or ground impact on collision trajectories through the end of 2026.** Risk lists contain only low-probability entries for later years, while recent close approaches remain well outside lunar distance and involve objects too small to produce major effects. Frequent detections of meter-scale impactors, such as the harmless ~0.8 m body entering over the Indian Ocean on September 6, confirm that surveys reliably catch tiny events but reveal no larger threats. Improved telescopic surveys and orbital refinements continue to reduce uncertainty for known objects, supporting trader consensus that an undetected 10–20 m+ impactor striking in the remaining months is unlikely. Key near-term catalysts include any new discoveries from ongoing surveys or updates to Sentry risk assessments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMajor meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
$202,307 Vol.
$202,307 Vol.
$202,307 Vol.
$202,307 Vol.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing near-Earth object monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS and ESA systems shows no asteroids large enough for a 10kt+ airburst or ground impact on collision trajectories through the end of 2026.** Risk lists contain only low-probability entries for later years, while recent close approaches remain well outside lunar distance and involve objects too small to produce major effects. Frequent detections of meter-scale impactors, such as the harmless ~0.8 m body entering over the Indian Ocean on September 6, confirm that surveys reliably catch tiny events but reveal no larger threats. Improved telescopic surveys and orbital refinements continue to reduce uncertainty for known objects, supporting trader consensus that an undetected 10–20 m+ impactor striking in the remaining months is unlikely. Key near-term catalysts include any new discoveries from ongoing surveys or updates to Sentry risk assessments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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