Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity and widespread cloud cover are the main drivers keeping Manila's overnight minimum temperatures anchored near 25–26 °C on September 6. High humidity, light-to-moderate westerly winds, and ongoing showers limit radiative cooling after sunset, while model guidance shows only modest differences in cloud timing and rainfall intensity that separate a 25 °C low from 26 °C. Official forecasts from PAGASA and global ensembles converge on lows of 26 °C under these conditions, with historical September baselines also clustered around 25–26 °C. Market-implied odds reflect this narrow scientific uncertainty, as traders weigh the precise balance between sustained overcast skies and any brief clearing that could allow slightly greater cooling before dawn.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Manila on September 6?
23°C 99%
25°C 51%
24°C 45%
21°C or below <1%
$416 Vol.
$416 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
99%
24°C
45%
25°C
51%
26°C
50%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
23°C 99%
25°C 51%
24°C 45%
21°C or below <1%
$416 Vol.
$416 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
21°C or below
$60 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$60 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$25 Vol.
99%
24°C
$16 Vol.
45%
25°C
$10 Vol.
51%
26°C
$15 Vol.
50%
27°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$50 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$45 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity and widespread cloud cover are the main drivers keeping Manila's overnight minimum temperatures anchored near 25–26 °C on September 6. High humidity, light-to-moderate westerly winds, and ongoing showers limit radiative cooling after sunset, while model guidance shows only modest differences in cloud timing and rainfall intensity that separate a 25 °C low from 26 °C. Official forecasts from PAGASA and global ensembles converge on lows of 26 °C under these conditions, with historical September baselines also clustered around 25–26 °C. Market-implied odds reflect this narrow scientific uncertainty, as traders weigh the precise balance between sustained overcast skies and any brief clearing that could allow slightly greater cooling before dawn.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$416End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity and widespread cloud cover are the main drivers keeping Manila's overnight minimum temperatures anchored near 25–26 °C on September 6. High humidity, light-to-moderate westerly winds, and ongoing showers limit radiative cooling after sunset, while model guidance shows only modest differences in cloud timing and rainfall intensity that separate a 25 °C low from 26 °C. Official forecasts from PAGASA and global ensembles converge on lows of 26 °C under these conditions, with historical September baselines also clustered around 25–26 °C. Market-implied odds reflect this narrow scientific uncertainty, as traders weigh the precise balance between sustained overcast skies and any brief clearing that could allow slightly greater cooling before dawn.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$416End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity and widespread cloud cover are the main drivers keeping Manila's overnight minimum temperatures anchored near 25–26 °C on September 6. High humidity, light-to-moderate westerly winds, and ongoing showers limit radiative cooling after sunset, while model guidance shows only modest differences in cloud timing and rainfall intensity that separate a 25 °C low from 26 °C. Official forecasts from PAGASA and global ensembles converge on lows of 26 °C under these conditions, with historical September baselines also clustered around 25–26 °C. Market-implied odds reflect this narrow scientific uncertainty, as traders weigh the precise balance between sustained overcast skies and any brief clearing that could allow slightly greater cooling before dawn.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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