**Forecast consensus from the Turkish Meteorological Service and international models supports a minimum of 15°C in Ankara on September 5 under clear skies, light northerly winds, and dry high-pressure conditions.** Hourly guidance shows temperatures bottoming near dawn after daytime highs near 30–32°C, with dew points and humidity levels consistent with radiational cooling but no frost risk. This aligns with late-summer climatology for the region, where September minima typically range 14–17°C absent major synoptic shifts. Trader consensus at 96% for 15°C reflects the tight clustering of official forecasts and limited model spread. A realistic challenge would require an unforecast increase in cloud cover, a sudden wind shift, or station-specific microclimate effects pushing the observed low to 14°C or 16°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Ankara on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Ankara on September 5?
15°C 96%
14°C 5%
13°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
$1,466 Vol.
$1,466 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
13°C or below
No
14°C
No
15°C
Yes
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C or higher
No
15°C 96%
14°C 5%
13°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
$1,466 Vol.
$1,466 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
13°C or below
$178 Vol.
No
14°C
$173 Vol.
No
15°C
$611 Vol.
Yes
16°C
$133 Vol.
No
17°C
$97 Vol.
No
18°C
$35 Vol.
No
19°C
$35 Vol.
No
20°C
$35 Vol.
No
21°C
$63 Vol.
No
22°C
$63 Vol.
No
23°C or higher
$43 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from the Turkish Meteorological Service and international models supports a minimum of 15°C in Ankara on September 5 under clear skies, light northerly winds, and dry high-pressure conditions.** Hourly guidance shows temperatures bottoming near dawn after daytime highs near 30–32°C, with dew points and humidity levels consistent with radiational cooling but no frost risk. This aligns with late-summer climatology for the region, where September minima typically range 14–17°C absent major synoptic shifts. Trader consensus at 96% for 15°C reflects the tight clustering of official forecasts and limited model spread. A realistic challenge would require an unforecast increase in cloud cover, a sudden wind shift, or station-specific microclimate effects pushing the observed low to 14°C or 16°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,466End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from the Turkish Meteorological Service and international models supports a minimum of 15°C in Ankara on September 5 under clear skies, light northerly winds, and dry high-pressure conditions.** Hourly guidance shows temperatures bottoming near dawn after daytime highs near 30–32°C, with dew points and humidity levels consistent with radiational cooling but no frost risk. This aligns with late-summer climatology for the region, where September minima typically range 14–17°C absent major synoptic shifts. Trader consensus at 96% for 15°C reflects the tight clustering of official forecasts and limited model spread. A realistic challenge would require an unforecast increase in cloud cover, a sudden wind shift, or station-specific microclimate effects pushing the observed low to 14°C or 16°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,466End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Forecast consensus from the Turkish Meteorological Service and international models supports a minimum of 15°C in Ankara on September 5 under clear skies, light northerly winds, and dry high-pressure conditions.** Hourly guidance shows temperatures bottoming near dawn after daytime highs near 30–32°C, with dew points and humidity levels consistent with radiational cooling but no frost risk. This aligns with late-summer climatology for the region, where September minima typically range 14–17°C absent major synoptic shifts. Trader consensus at 96% for 15°C reflects the tight clustering of official forecasts and limited model spread. A realistic challenge would require an unforecast increase in cloud cover, a sudden wind shift, or station-specific microclimate effects pushing the observed low to 14°C or 16°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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