Anthropic leads trader consensus at 57.1% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap due to its planned October listing targeting up to a $2 trillion valuation, supported by annualized revenue projected to reach $100–120 billion by year-end amid explosive demand for its Claude models. SpaceX follows at 40.0% after completing its June 2026 debut at a $1.77 trillion valuation and $75 billion raise, establishing a high benchmark that Anthropic’s growth trajectory could exceed. Lower probabilities for xAI, OpenAI, and others reflect their comparatively smaller private valuations, later timelines, or integration into existing public entities. Market-implied odds price in execution risks around regulatory review, credit facility finalization, and broader AI sector sentiment ahead of key catalysts like Anthropic’s prospectus release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Anthropic 56.5%
SpaceX 40%
OpenAI 1.7%
Discord <1%
$5,935,438 Vol.
$5,935,438 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Anthropic
57%
SpaceX
40%
OpenAI
2%
Discord
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Stripe
<1%
Kraken
<1%
SHEIN
<1%
Waymo
<1%
Revolut
<1%
Perplexity AI
<1%
Databricks
<1%
Anthropic 56.5%
SpaceX 40%
OpenAI 1.7%
Discord <1%
$5,935,438 Vol.
$5,935,438 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Anthropic
$1,093,094 Vol.
57%
SpaceX
$852,436 Vol.
40%
OpenAI
$543,974 Vol.
2%
Discord
$182,734 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$213,392 Vol.
<1%
Stripe
$134,177 Vol.
<1%
Kraken
$656,964 Vol.
<1%
SHEIN
$583,615 Vol.
<1%
Waymo
$318,150 Vol.
<1%
Revolut
$633,687 Vol.
<1%
Perplexity AI
$108,136 Vol.
<1%
Databricks
$615,081 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Anthropic leads trader consensus at 57.1% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap due to its planned October listing targeting up to a $2 trillion valuation, supported by annualized revenue projected to reach $100–120 billion by year-end amid explosive demand for its Claude models. SpaceX follows at 40.0% after completing its June 2026 debut at a $1.77 trillion valuation and $75 billion raise, establishing a high benchmark that Anthropic’s growth trajectory could exceed. Lower probabilities for xAI, OpenAI, and others reflect their comparatively smaller private valuations, later timelines, or integration into existing public entities. Market-implied odds price in execution risks around regulatory review, credit facility finalization, and broader AI sector sentiment ahead of key catalysts like Anthropic’s prospectus release.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
Volume
$5,935,438End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Anthropic leads trader consensus at 57.1% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap due to its planned October listing targeting up to a $2 trillion valuation, supported by annualized revenue projected to reach $100–120 billion by year-end amid explosive demand for its Claude models. SpaceX follows at 40.0% after completing its June 2026 debut at a $1.77 trillion valuation and $75 billion raise, establishing a high benchmark that Anthropic’s growth trajectory could exceed. Lower probabilities for xAI, OpenAI, and others reflect their comparatively smaller private valuations, later timelines, or integration into existing public entities. Market-implied odds price in execution risks around regulatory review, credit facility finalization, and broader AI sector sentiment ahead of key catalysts like Anthropic’s prospectus release.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$5,935,438End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic leads trader consensus at 57.1% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap due to its planned October listing targeting up to a $2 trillion valuation, supported by annualized revenue projected to reach $100–120 billion by year-end amid explosive demand for its Claude models. SpaceX follows at 40.0% after completing its June 2026 debut at a $1.77 trillion valuation and $75 billion raise, establishing a high benchmark that Anthropic’s growth trajectory could exceed. Lower probabilities for xAI, OpenAI, and others reflect their comparatively smaller private valuations, later timelines, or integration into existing public entities. Market-implied odds price in execution risks around regulatory review, credit facility finalization, and broader AI sector sentiment ahead of key catalysts like Anthropic’s prospectus release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions