**Recent polling averages place United Torah Judaism (UTJ) at 7–8 Knesset seats, aligning with the market’s leading 7-8 outcome at 45.5%.** Consistent results across surveys from Zman Yisrael, Kantar, Maariv, and others reflect stable Ashkenazi Haredi voter turnout and the party’s narrow focus on yeshiva funding, draft exemptions, and religious authority. UTJ’s bloc positioning with Likud and Shas has held despite coalition strains over the stalled exemption law and recent Supreme Court pressure on funding. Internal list changes, including the planned removal of veteran MK Moshe Gafni amid draft-related disputes, have not shifted projected totals. The 9-10 band at 32% captures upside from higher Haredi mobilization, while lower probabilities for <7 or 11+ seats track historical ranges and the absence of major recent catalysts capable of moving the needle before the October 27 election. Trader consensus therefore centers on continuity in the party’s core electorate.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIsrael Election: UTJ # of seats?
Israel Election: UTJ # of seats?
7-8 45%
9-10 32%
<7 23%
11+ 5%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<7
23%
7-8
45%
9-10
32%
11+
5%
7-8 45%
9-10 32%
<7 23%
11+ 5%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<7
$4 Vol.
23%
7-8
$0 Vol.
45%
9-10
$0 Vol.
32%
11+
$316 Vol.
5%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by United Torah Judaism in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by United Torah Judaism in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).**Recent polling averages place United Torah Judaism (UTJ) at 7–8 Knesset seats, aligning with the market’s leading 7-8 outcome at 45.5%.** Consistent results across surveys from Zman Yisrael, Kantar, Maariv, and others reflect stable Ashkenazi Haredi voter turnout and the party’s narrow focus on yeshiva funding, draft exemptions, and religious authority. UTJ’s bloc positioning with Likud and Shas has held despite coalition strains over the stalled exemption law and recent Supreme Court pressure on funding. Internal list changes, including the planned removal of veteran MK Moshe Gafni amid draft-related disputes, have not shifted projected totals. The 9-10 band at 32% captures upside from higher Haredi mobilization, while lower probabilities for <7 or 11+ seats track historical ranges and the absence of major recent catalysts capable of moving the needle before the October 27 election. Trader consensus therefore centers on continuity in the party’s core electorate.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by United Torah Judaism in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by United Torah Judaism in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by United Torah Judaism in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by United Torah Judaism in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 6:15 PM ET
Volume
$321End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 6:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by United Torah Judaism in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by United Torah Judaism in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).**Recent polling averages place United Torah Judaism (UTJ) at 7–8 Knesset seats, aligning with the market’s leading 7-8 outcome at 45.5%.** Consistent results across surveys from Zman Yisrael, Kantar, Maariv, and others reflect stable Ashkenazi Haredi voter turnout and the party’s narrow focus on yeshiva funding, draft exemptions, and religious authority. UTJ’s bloc positioning with Likud and Shas has held despite coalition strains over the stalled exemption law and recent Supreme Court pressure on funding. Internal list changes, including the planned removal of veteran MK Moshe Gafni amid draft-related disputes, have not shifted projected totals. The 9-10 band at 32% captures upside from higher Haredi mobilization, while lower probabilities for <7 or 11+ seats track historical ranges and the absence of major recent catalysts capable of moving the needle before the October 27 election. Trader consensus therefore centers on continuity in the party’s core electorate.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by United Torah Judaism in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by United Torah Judaism in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by United Torah Judaism in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by United Torah Judaism in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$321End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 6:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent polling averages place United Torah Judaism (UTJ) at 7–8 Knesset seats, aligning with the market’s leading 7-8 outcome at 45.5%.** Consistent results across surveys from Zman Yisrael, Kantar, Maariv, and others reflect stable Ashkenazi Haredi voter turnout and the party’s narrow focus on yeshiva funding, draft exemptions, and religious authority. UTJ’s bloc positioning with Likud and Shas has held despite coalition strains over the stalled exemption law and recent Supreme Court pressure on funding. Internal list changes, including the planned removal of veteran MK Moshe Gafni amid draft-related disputes, have not shifted projected totals. The 9-10 band at 32% captures upside from higher Haredi mobilization, while lower probabilities for <7 or 11+ seats track historical ranges and the absence of major recent catalysts capable of moving the needle before the October 27 election. Trader consensus therefore centers on continuity in the party’s core electorate.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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