**Recent polling averages place United Torah Judaism (UTJ) at 7–8 Knesset seats, aligning with the market’s leading 7–8 outcome at 47%.** Consistent results across multiple surveys through early September 2026 reflect the party’s stable Ashkenazi Haredi voter base, driven by high fertility rates and community cohesion, despite broader coalition turbulence. UTJ and Shas withdrew support from the Netanyahu government earlier in the summer to accelerate draft-exemption and Torah-study legislation; subsequent deals and court interventions have kept these issues salient without shifting UTJ’s projected seat count. A new Haredi splinter party has entered the race but has not yet measurably eroded UTJ support in published polls. With the October 27 election approaching, traders appear to view UTJ’s range as bounded by its insulated electorate and limited upside from wider right-wing fragmentation, keeping 9–10 seats as the secondary probability at 36%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIsrael Election: UTJ # of seats?
Israel Election: UTJ # of seats?
7-8 44%
9-10 34%
<7 23%
11+ 5%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<7
23%
7-8
44%
9-10
34%
11+
5%
7-8 44%
9-10 34%
<7 23%
11+ 5%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<7
$4 Vol.
23%
7-8
$0 Vol.
44%
9-10
$0 Vol.
34%
11+
$316 Vol.
5%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by United Torah Judaism in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by United Torah Judaism in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).**Recent polling averages place United Torah Judaism (UTJ) at 7–8 Knesset seats, aligning with the market’s leading 7–8 outcome at 47%.** Consistent results across multiple surveys through early September 2026 reflect the party’s stable Ashkenazi Haredi voter base, driven by high fertility rates and community cohesion, despite broader coalition turbulence. UTJ and Shas withdrew support from the Netanyahu government earlier in the summer to accelerate draft-exemption and Torah-study legislation; subsequent deals and court interventions have kept these issues salient without shifting UTJ’s projected seat count. A new Haredi splinter party has entered the race but has not yet measurably eroded UTJ support in published polls. With the October 27 election approaching, traders appear to view UTJ’s range as bounded by its insulated electorate and limited upside from wider right-wing fragmentation, keeping 9–10 seats as the secondary probability at 36%.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by United Torah Judaism in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by United Torah Judaism in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by United Torah Judaism in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by United Torah Judaism in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 6:15 PM ET
Volume
$321End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 6:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by United Torah Judaism in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by United Torah Judaism in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).**Recent polling averages place United Torah Judaism (UTJ) at 7–8 Knesset seats, aligning with the market’s leading 7–8 outcome at 47%.** Consistent results across multiple surveys through early September 2026 reflect the party’s stable Ashkenazi Haredi voter base, driven by high fertility rates and community cohesion, despite broader coalition turbulence. UTJ and Shas withdrew support from the Netanyahu government earlier in the summer to accelerate draft-exemption and Torah-study legislation; subsequent deals and court interventions have kept these issues salient without shifting UTJ’s projected seat count. A new Haredi splinter party has entered the race but has not yet measurably eroded UTJ support in published polls. With the October 27 election approaching, traders appear to view UTJ’s range as bounded by its insulated electorate and limited upside from wider right-wing fragmentation, keeping 9–10 seats as the secondary probability at 36%.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by United Torah Judaism in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by United Torah Judaism in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by United Torah Judaism in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If United Torah Judaism contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Torah Judaism merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by United Torah Judaism in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$321End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 6:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent polling averages place United Torah Judaism (UTJ) at 7–8 Knesset seats, aligning with the market’s leading 7–8 outcome at 47%.** Consistent results across multiple surveys through early September 2026 reflect the party’s stable Ashkenazi Haredi voter base, driven by high fertility rates and community cohesion, despite broader coalition turbulence. UTJ and Shas withdrew support from the Netanyahu government earlier in the summer to accelerate draft-exemption and Torah-study legislation; subsequent deals and court interventions have kept these issues salient without shifting UTJ’s projected seat count. A new Haredi splinter party has entered the race but has not yet measurably eroded UTJ support in published polls. With the October 27 election approaching, traders appear to view UTJ’s range as bounded by its insulated electorate and limited upside from wider right-wing fragmentation, keeping 9–10 seats as the secondary probability at 36%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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