Saudi Arabia continues to condition any normalization with Israel on a credible, irreversible pathway to Palestinian statehood along 1967 borders, a demand Riyadh has repeatedly described as non-negotiable following the Gaza conflict and related regional operations. Domestic Saudi public opinion remains overwhelmingly opposed, with surveys showing near-universal negative views, while leadership statements and diplomatic channels through 2026 have kept the issue off the immediate agenda. Recent U.S. efforts to link nuclear or defense cooperation to Abraham Accords accession have not altered Riyadh’s stance, and broader regional dynamics, including shifting alliances and Iran-related tensions, have reinforced the pause. Traders therefore assign high probability to no formal diplomatic relations materializing before 2027.