Recent August ISM Manufacturing PMI data at 54.6, down from July's 55.6, anchors expectations for September amid continued expansion for an eighth straight month. Moderating new orders at 53.7 and backlogs, alongside stable but elevated production near 58, reflect softening demand momentum offset by AI-driven capital spending, low customer inventories, and reshoring trends. Persistent price pressures near 71, driven by tariffs, supply-chain delays from geopolitical tensions, and input cost volatility, sustain upside risks in the 55-plus range while supporting the competitive spread across 53.0–55.9 brackets at roughly 60% combined implied probability. Stable labor conditions and broader economic resilience ahead of the October 1 release keep lower readings like 52.0–52.9 in play as swing outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated55.0 to 55.9 23%
53.0 to 53.9 20%
57.0 to 57.9 18%
54.0 to 54.9 17%
NEW
NEW
Oct 1, 2026
<50.0
5%
50.0 to 50.9
1%
51.0 to 51.9
5%
52.0 to 52.9
16%
53.0 to 53.9
20%
54.0 to 54.9
17%
55.0 to 55.9
23%
56.0 to 56.9
5%
57.0 to 57.9
18%
58.0+
4%
55.0 to 55.9 23%
53.0 to 53.9 20%
57.0 to 57.9 18%
54.0 to 54.9 17%
NEW
NEW
Oct 1, 2026
<50.0
$180 Vol.
5%
50.0 to 50.9
$945 Vol.
1%
51.0 to 51.9
$676 Vol.
5%
52.0 to 52.9
$75 Vol.
16%
53.0 to 53.9
$38 Vol.
20%
54.0 to 54.9
$54 Vol.
17%
55.0 to 55.9
$53 Vol.
23%
56.0 to 56.9
$29 Vol.
5%
57.0 to 57.9
$37 Vol.
18%
58.0+
$189 Vol.
4%
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent August ISM Manufacturing PMI data at 54.6, down from July's 55.6, anchors expectations for September amid continued expansion for an eighth straight month. Moderating new orders at 53.7 and backlogs, alongside stable but elevated production near 58, reflect softening demand momentum offset by AI-driven capital spending, low customer inventories, and reshoring trends. Persistent price pressures near 71, driven by tariffs, supply-chain delays from geopolitical tensions, and input cost volatility, sustain upside risks in the 55-plus range while supporting the competitive spread across 53.0–55.9 brackets at roughly 60% combined implied probability. Stable labor conditions and broader economic resilience ahead of the October 1 release keep lower readings like 52.0–52.9 in play as swing outcomes.
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 6:22 PM ET
Volume
$2,275End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent August ISM Manufacturing PMI data at 54.6, down from July's 55.6, anchors expectations for September amid continued expansion for an eighth straight month. Moderating new orders at 53.7 and backlogs, alongside stable but elevated production near 58, reflect softening demand momentum offset by AI-driven capital spending, low customer inventories, and reshoring trends. Persistent price pressures near 71, driven by tariffs, supply-chain delays from geopolitical tensions, and input cost volatility, sustain upside risks in the 55-plus range while supporting the competitive spread across 53.0–55.9 brackets at roughly 60% combined implied probability. Stable labor conditions and broader economic resilience ahead of the October 1 release keep lower readings like 52.0–52.9 in play as swing outcomes.
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$2,275End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent August ISM Manufacturing PMI data at 54.6, down from July's 55.6, anchors expectations for September amid continued expansion for an eighth straight month. Moderating new orders at 53.7 and backlogs, alongside stable but elevated production near 58, reflect softening demand momentum offset by AI-driven capital spending, low customer inventories, and reshoring trends. Persistent price pressures near 71, driven by tariffs, supply-chain delays from geopolitical tensions, and input cost volatility, sustain upside risks in the 55-plus range while supporting the competitive spread across 53.0–55.9 brackets at roughly 60% combined implied probability. Stable labor conditions and broader economic resilience ahead of the October 1 release keep lower readings like 52.0–52.9 in play as swing outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions