**Preliminary counts from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center place August 2026 at 96 confirmed U.S. tornadoes, anchoring trader consensus on the 80-99 bin at 94.5% implied probability.** This figure sits near the 1991–2020 August climatological average of roughly 81–94 events and reflects typical late-season activity concentrated in the Midwest and southern plains, with limited influence from tropical systems or strong jet-stream setups. El Niño conditions likely contributed to near-normal convective environments rather than suppression or enhancement. The dominant positioning reflects real-time alignment between observed reports and historical baselines, with final NCEI verification expected shortly. Modest uncertainty remains if post-survey revisions move the total outside 80–99, though such shifts are historically small for this month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?
80-99 94.5%
100–119 5.6%
60-79 1.8%
170–199 <1%
$10,612 Vol.
$10,612 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
<40
<1%
40–59
<1%
60-79
2%
80-99
95%
100–119
6%
120–139
<1%
140-169
<1%
170–199
<1%
200+
<1%
80-99 94.5%
100–119 5.6%
60-79 1.8%
170–199 <1%
$10,612 Vol.
$10,612 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
<40
$440 Vol.
<1%
40–59
$671 Vol.
<1%
60-79
$2,198 Vol.
2%
80-99
$4,498 Vol.
95%
100–119
$1,162 Vol.
6%
120–139
$247 Vol.
<1%
140-169
$397 Vol.
<1%
170–199
$440 Vol.
<1%
200+
$558 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Preliminary counts from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center place August 2026 at 96 confirmed U.S. tornadoes, anchoring trader consensus on the 80-99 bin at 94.5% implied probability.** This figure sits near the 1991–2020 August climatological average of roughly 81–94 events and reflects typical late-season activity concentrated in the Midwest and southern plains, with limited influence from tropical systems or strong jet-stream setups. El Niño conditions likely contributed to near-normal convective environments rather than suppression or enhancement. The dominant positioning reflects real-time alignment between observed reports and historical baselines, with final NCEI verification expected shortly. Modest uncertainty remains if post-survey revisions move the total outside 80–99, though such shifts are historically small for this month.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volume
$10,612End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Preliminary counts from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center place August 2026 at 96 confirmed U.S. tornadoes, anchoring trader consensus on the 80-99 bin at 94.5% implied probability.** This figure sits near the 1991–2020 August climatological average of roughly 81–94 events and reflects typical late-season activity concentrated in the Midwest and southern plains, with limited influence from tropical systems or strong jet-stream setups. El Niño conditions likely contributed to near-normal convective environments rather than suppression or enhancement. The dominant positioning reflects real-time alignment between observed reports and historical baselines, with final NCEI verification expected shortly. Modest uncertainty remains if post-survey revisions move the total outside 80–99, though such shifts are historically small for this month.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$10,612End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Preliminary counts from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center place August 2026 at 96 confirmed U.S. tornadoes, anchoring trader consensus on the 80-99 bin at 94.5% implied probability.** This figure sits near the 1991–2020 August climatological average of roughly 81–94 events and reflects typical late-season activity concentrated in the Midwest and southern plains, with limited influence from tropical systems or strong jet-stream setups. El Niño conditions likely contributed to near-normal convective environments rather than suppression or enhancement. The dominant positioning reflects real-time alignment between observed reports and historical baselines, with final NCEI verification expected shortly. Modest uncertainty remains if post-survey revisions move the total outside 80–99, though such shifts are historically small for this month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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