Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the unresolved U.S.-Iran conflict continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, driving trader consensus toward the lower outcome buckets. Persistent IRGC enforcement actions, elevated war-risk premiums, sanctions reimposition, and route restrictions have kept daily vessel counts well below the pre-2026 average of roughly 130 crossings, with recent trackers showing single-digit to low-teen averages amid selective dark transits and backlogs. The closely matched probabilities on <20 through 25-29 reflect uncertainty over near-term catalysts, including potential de-escalation signals or renewed strikes that could shift weekly aggregates. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital bets on these dynamics, pricing in the baseline of constrained flows without assuming resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 7?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 7?
<20 28%
20-24 19%
25-29 19%
30-34 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
<20
28%
20-24
19%
25-29
19%
30-34
13%
35-39
12%
40+
9%
<20 28%
20-24 19%
25-29 19%
30-34 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
<20
$824 Vol.
28%
20-24
$237 Vol.
19%
25-29
$335 Vol.
19%
30-34
$217 Vol.
13%
35-39
$962 Vol.
12%
40+
$234 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the unresolved U.S.-Iran conflict continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, driving trader consensus toward the lower outcome buckets. Persistent IRGC enforcement actions, elevated war-risk premiums, sanctions reimposition, and route restrictions have kept daily vessel counts well below the pre-2026 average of roughly 130 crossings, with recent trackers showing single-digit to low-teen averages amid selective dark transits and backlogs. The closely matched probabilities on <20 through 25-29 reflect uncertainty over near-term catalysts, including potential de-escalation signals or renewed strikes that could shift weekly aggregates. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital bets on these dynamics, pricing in the baseline of constrained flows without assuming resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 10:25 AM ET
Volume
$2,809End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the unresolved U.S.-Iran conflict continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, driving trader consensus toward the lower outcome buckets. Persistent IRGC enforcement actions, elevated war-risk premiums, sanctions reimposition, and route restrictions have kept daily vessel counts well below the pre-2026 average of roughly 130 crossings, with recent trackers showing single-digit to low-teen averages amid selective dark transits and backlogs. The closely matched probabilities on <20 through 25-29 reflect uncertainty over near-term catalysts, including potential de-escalation signals or renewed strikes that could shift weekly aggregates. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital bets on these dynamics, pricing in the baseline of constrained flows without assuming resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$2,809End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the unresolved U.S.-Iran conflict continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, driving trader consensus toward the lower outcome buckets. Persistent IRGC enforcement actions, elevated war-risk premiums, sanctions reimposition, and route restrictions have kept daily vessel counts well below the pre-2026 average of roughly 130 crossings, with recent trackers showing single-digit to low-teen averages amid selective dark transits and backlogs. The closely matched probabilities on <20 through 25-29 reflect uncertainty over near-term catalysts, including potential de-escalation signals or renewed strikes that could shift weekly aggregates. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital bets on these dynamics, pricing in the baseline of constrained flows without assuming resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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