Persistent geopolitical tensions stemming from the 2026 U.S.-Iran conflict continue to constrain vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz, with recent data showing daily commodity-related crossings averaging in the single digits to low teens as of early September—well below the pre-war baseline of roughly 125-140 per day. High war-risk insurance premiums, IRGC enforcement actions, and reliance on dark or shadow-fleet operations limit commercial participation, while limited pipeline alternatives and rerouting via Fujairah or Yanbu have only partially offset the shortfall. Trader sentiment reflects this uncertainty, with closely matched probabilities across the 20-29 and surrounding bins driven by the potential for incremental security improvements versus renewed escalation risks ahead of the September 7-13 window. Macro factors, including Brent crude levels and broader energy supply concerns, further anchor expectations for subdued weekly volumes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 7?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 7?
<20 24%
20-24 20%
25-29 19%
35-39 17%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
<20
24%
20-24
20%
25-29
19%
30-34
13%
35-39
17%
40+
10%
<20 24%
20-24 20%
25-29 19%
35-39 17%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
<20
$784 Vol.
24%
20-24
$237 Vol.
20%
25-29
$325 Vol.
19%
30-34
$208 Vol.
13%
35-39
$709 Vol.
17%
40+
$234 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions stemming from the 2026 U.S.-Iran conflict continue to constrain vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz, with recent data showing daily commodity-related crossings averaging in the single digits to low teens as of early September—well below the pre-war baseline of roughly 125-140 per day. High war-risk insurance premiums, IRGC enforcement actions, and reliance on dark or shadow-fleet operations limit commercial participation, while limited pipeline alternatives and rerouting via Fujairah or Yanbu have only partially offset the shortfall. Trader sentiment reflects this uncertainty, with closely matched probabilities across the 20-29 and surrounding bins driven by the potential for incremental security improvements versus renewed escalation risks ahead of the September 7-13 window. Macro factors, including Brent crude levels and broader energy supply concerns, further anchor expectations for subdued weekly volumes.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 10:25 AM ET
Volume
$2,498End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions stemming from the 2026 U.S.-Iran conflict continue to constrain vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz, with recent data showing daily commodity-related crossings averaging in the single digits to low teens as of early September—well below the pre-war baseline of roughly 125-140 per day. High war-risk insurance premiums, IRGC enforcement actions, and reliance on dark or shadow-fleet operations limit commercial participation, while limited pipeline alternatives and rerouting via Fujairah or Yanbu have only partially offset the shortfall. Trader sentiment reflects this uncertainty, with closely matched probabilities across the 20-29 and surrounding bins driven by the potential for incremental security improvements versus renewed escalation risks ahead of the September 7-13 window. Macro factors, including Brent crude levels and broader energy supply concerns, further anchor expectations for subdued weekly volumes.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$2,498End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent geopolitical tensions stemming from the 2026 U.S.-Iran conflict continue to constrain vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz, with recent data showing daily commodity-related crossings averaging in the single digits to low teens as of early September—well below the pre-war baseline of roughly 125-140 per day. High war-risk insurance premiums, IRGC enforcement actions, and reliance on dark or shadow-fleet operations limit commercial participation, while limited pipeline alternatives and rerouting via Fujairah or Yanbu have only partially offset the shortfall. Trader sentiment reflects this uncertainty, with closely matched probabilities across the 20-29 and surrounding bins driven by the potential for incremental security improvements versus renewed escalation risks ahead of the September 7-13 window. Macro factors, including Brent crude levels and broader energy supply concerns, further anchor expectations for subdued weekly volumes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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