**Heightened Houthi military activity near Bab el-Mandeb and persistent Red Sea security risks are anchoring trader sentiment around the 170-229 ship range for the week of September 7, 2026, with the 170-189 bin holding the narrow lead at 35.5%.** Recent ground offensives and clashes in western Taiz and near Mokha, reported in the first week of September, have raised the prospect of improved Houthi positioning to monitor or interdict traffic through the strait, a key chokepoint for roughly 12% of global trade. This follows earlier 2026 patterns of fluctuating volumes—daily commodity-vessel crossings often in the mid-20s to low-40s range amid selective attacks, insurance constraints, and rerouting incentives—well below 2023 peaks. Compliant traffic remains sensitive to war-risk premiums and carrier policies, while shadow-fleet and Chinese-linked vessels have shown more resilience. With probabilities tightly clustered, outcomes hinge on whether the latest escalation prompts measurable avoidance or dark-transit increases versus a continuation of the gradual post-ceasefire recovery seen in late August data. Upcoming catalyst windows include any immediate follow-on incidents or shipping-line announcements that could shift daily averages by several vessels.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 7?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 7?
170-189 35%
190-209 28%
210-229 24%
<170 7%
$36,651 Vol.
$36,651 Vol.
Sep 13, 2026
<170
7%
170-189
35%
190-209
28%
210-229
24%
230+
7%
170-189 35%
190-209 28%
210-229 24%
<170 7%
$36,651 Vol.
$36,651 Vol.
Sep 13, 2026
<170
$13,830 Vol.
7%
170-189
$287 Vol.
35%
190-209
$566 Vol.
28%
210-229
$663 Vol.
24%
230+
$21,304 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Heightened Houthi military activity near Bab el-Mandeb and persistent Red Sea security risks are anchoring trader sentiment around the 170-229 ship range for the week of September 7, 2026, with the 170-189 bin holding the narrow lead at 35.5%.**
Recent ground offensives and clashes in western Taiz and near Mokha, reported in the first week of September, have raised the prospect of improved Houthi positioning to monitor or interdict traffic through the strait, a key chokepoint for roughly 12% of global trade. This follows earlier 2026 patterns of fluctuating volumes—daily commodity-vessel crossings often in the mid-20s to low-40s range amid selective attacks, insurance constraints, and rerouting incentives—well below 2023 peaks.
Compliant traffic remains sensitive to war-risk premiums and carrier policies, while shadow-fleet and Chinese-linked vessels have shown more resilience. With probabilities tightly clustered, outcomes hinge on whether the latest escalation prompts measurable avoidance or dark-transit increases versus a continuation of the gradual post-ceasefire recovery seen in late August data. Upcoming catalyst windows include any immediate follow-on incidents or shipping-line announcements that could shift daily averages by several vessels.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
Volume
$36,651End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Heightened Houthi military activity near Bab el-Mandeb and persistent Red Sea security risks are anchoring trader sentiment around the 170-229 ship range for the week of September 7, 2026, with the 170-189 bin holding the narrow lead at 35.5%.**
Recent ground offensives and clashes in western Taiz and near Mokha, reported in the first week of September, have raised the prospect of improved Houthi positioning to monitor or interdict traffic through the strait, a key chokepoint for roughly 12% of global trade. This follows earlier 2026 patterns of fluctuating volumes—daily commodity-vessel crossings often in the mid-20s to low-40s range amid selective attacks, insurance constraints, and rerouting incentives—well below 2023 peaks.
Compliant traffic remains sensitive to war-risk premiums and carrier policies, while shadow-fleet and Chinese-linked vessels have shown more resilience. With probabilities tightly clustered, outcomes hinge on whether the latest escalation prompts measurable avoidance or dark-transit increases versus a continuation of the gradual post-ceasefire recovery seen in late August data. Upcoming catalyst windows include any immediate follow-on incidents or shipping-line announcements that could shift daily averages by several vessels.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$36,651End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Heightened Houthi military activity near Bab el-Mandeb and persistent Red Sea security risks are anchoring trader sentiment around the 170-229 ship range for the week of September 7, 2026, with the 170-189 bin holding the narrow lead at 35.5%.** Recent ground offensives and clashes in western Taiz and near Mokha, reported in the first week of September, have raised the prospect of improved Houthi positioning to monitor or interdict traffic through the strait, a key chokepoint for roughly 12% of global trade. This follows earlier 2026 patterns of fluctuating volumes—daily commodity-vessel crossings often in the mid-20s to low-40s range amid selective attacks, insurance constraints, and rerouting incentives—well below 2023 peaks. Compliant traffic remains sensitive to war-risk premiums and carrier policies, while shadow-fleet and Chinese-linked vessels have shown more resilience. With probabilities tightly clustered, outcomes hinge on whether the latest escalation prompts measurable avoidance or dark-transit increases versus a continuation of the gradual post-ceasefire recovery seen in late August data. Upcoming catalyst windows include any immediate follow-on incidents or shipping-line announcements that could shift daily averages by several vessels.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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