Ongoing Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked vessels, including strikes near Yanbu and the Jizan refinery in late August, have sustained elevated war-risk premiums and prompted selective rerouting or AIS-dark transits, compressing mainstream tanker flows through Bab el-Mandeb while supporting resilient overall volumes from other operators. Weekly crossing data from late August showed 48- to 72-hour periods ranging 60–81 vessels, consistent with full-week totals near 180–220 when including dark movements and non-tanker traffic. This keeps the 170–189 and 190–209 bins closely contested, as modest fluctuations in daily activity—driven by attack timing, shadow-fleet participation, and Suez recovery—can shift the outcome. Key differentiators include visibility improvements from fewer dark transits versus persistent Saudi export constraints, with any escalation or lull in incidents before resolution likely determining the final tally.