Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked vessels, including the August 24 strike on the Bahri tanker Amzan, combined with ongoing dark transits and selective Suez Canal resumptions by major carriers, have kept Bab el-Mandeb volumes in a narrow band near 180–220 ships per week. Data from late August show daily averages of roughly 30–40 vessels, with 48–72-hour snapshots ranging 60–81 transits, reflecting both resilient non-targeted traffic and elevated risk premiums that suppress tanker and container flows. The tight contest between the 170–189 and 190–209 brackets stems from uncertainty over how fully AIS-off movements are captured and whether fresh incidents will trigger further diversions around the Cape.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 31?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 31?
190-209 40%
170-189 35%
210-229 22%
230+ 6%
$34,574 Vol.
$34,574 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
<170
4%
170-189
35%
190-209
40%
210-229
22%
230+
6%
190-209 40%
170-189 35%
210-229 22%
230+ 6%
$34,574 Vol.
$34,574 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
<170
$1,303 Vol.
4%
170-189
$3,915 Vol.
35%
190-209
$5,017 Vol.
40%
210-229
$10,157 Vol.
22%
230+
$14,182 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked vessels, including the August 24 strike on the Bahri tanker Amzan, combined with ongoing dark transits and selective Suez Canal resumptions by major carriers, have kept Bab el-Mandeb volumes in a narrow band near 180–220 ships per week. Data from late August show daily averages of roughly 30–40 vessels, with 48–72-hour snapshots ranging 60–81 transits, reflecting both resilient non-targeted traffic and elevated risk premiums that suppress tanker and container flows. The tight contest between the 170–189 and 190–209 brackets stems from uncertainty over how fully AIS-off movements are captured and whether fresh incidents will trigger further diversions around the Cape.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$34,574End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked vessels, including the August 24 strike on the Bahri tanker Amzan, combined with ongoing dark transits and selective Suez Canal resumptions by major carriers, have kept Bab el-Mandeb volumes in a narrow band near 180–220 ships per week. Data from late August show daily averages of roughly 30–40 vessels, with 48–72-hour snapshots ranging 60–81 transits, reflecting both resilient non-targeted traffic and elevated risk premiums that suppress tanker and container flows. The tight contest between the 170–189 and 190–209 brackets stems from uncertainty over how fully AIS-off movements are captured and whether fresh incidents will trigger further diversions around the Cape.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$34,574End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked vessels, including the August 24 strike on the Bahri tanker Amzan, combined with ongoing dark transits and selective Suez Canal resumptions by major carriers, have kept Bab el-Mandeb volumes in a narrow band near 180–220 ships per week. Data from late August show daily averages of roughly 30–40 vessels, with 48–72-hour snapshots ranging 60–81 transits, reflecting both resilient non-targeted traffic and elevated risk premiums that suppress tanker and container flows. The tight contest between the 170–189 and 190–209 brackets stems from uncertainty over how fully AIS-off movements are captured and whether fresh incidents will trigger further diversions around the Cape.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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