**Divergence among short-range forecast models on the timing and coverage of afternoon convection is the main factor behind the closely matched trader-implied probabilities for a 30–32 °C high in Panama City on September 7.** In Panama’s wet-season regime, peak temperatures depend heavily on cloud cover and thunderstorm development that typically begins by midday, limiting solar heating. Current ECMWF and GFS guidance shows modest differences in boundary-layer moisture and steering flow that could either allow brief clearing for readings near 32 °C or sustain widespread clouds and showers capping the maximum at 30–31 °C. Historical September climatology places average highs around 30–31 °C, so the market spread reflects genuine uncertainty in how quickly instability will organize rather than any major shift in large-scale conditions. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 24 hours will likely tighten the distribution before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Panama City on September 7?
Highest temperature in Panama City on September 7?
31°C 35%
32°C 29%
30°C 16%
33°C or higher 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
23°C or below
1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
4%
30°C
16%
31°C
35%
32°C
29%
33°C or higher
13%
31°C 35%
32°C 29%
30°C 16%
33°C or higher 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
23°C or below
$125 Vol.
1%
24°C
$481 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$281 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$134 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$137 Vol.
1%
28°C
$48 Vol.
1%
29°C
$475 Vol.
4%
30°C
$228 Vol.
16%
31°C
$123 Vol.
35%
32°C
$2,366 Vol.
29%
33°C or higher
$896 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Divergence among short-range forecast models on the timing and coverage of afternoon convection is the main factor behind the closely matched trader-implied probabilities for a 30–32 °C high in Panama City on September 7.** In Panama’s wet-season regime, peak temperatures depend heavily on cloud cover and thunderstorm development that typically begins by midday, limiting solar heating. Current ECMWF and GFS guidance shows modest differences in boundary-layer moisture and steering flow that could either allow brief clearing for readings near 32 °C or sustain widespread clouds and showers capping the maximum at 30–31 °C. Historical September climatology places average highs around 30–31 °C, so the market spread reflects genuine uncertainty in how quickly instability will organize rather than any major shift in large-scale conditions. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 24 hours will likely tighten the distribution before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 8:56 AM ET
Volume
$5,295End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmgResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Divergence among short-range forecast models on the timing and coverage of afternoon convection is the main factor behind the closely matched trader-implied probabilities for a 30–32 °C high in Panama City on September 7.** In Panama’s wet-season regime, peak temperatures depend heavily on cloud cover and thunderstorm development that typically begins by midday, limiting solar heating. Current ECMWF and GFS guidance shows modest differences in boundary-layer moisture and steering flow that could either allow brief clearing for readings near 32 °C or sustain widespread clouds and showers capping the maximum at 30–31 °C. Historical September climatology places average highs around 30–31 °C, so the market spread reflects genuine uncertainty in how quickly instability will organize rather than any major shift in large-scale conditions. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 24 hours will likely tighten the distribution before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,295End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mpmgResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Divergence among short-range forecast models on the timing and coverage of afternoon convection is the main factor behind the closely matched trader-implied probabilities for a 30–32 °C high in Panama City on September 7.** In Panama’s wet-season regime, peak temperatures depend heavily on cloud cover and thunderstorm development that typically begins by midday, limiting solar heating. Current ECMWF and GFS guidance shows modest differences in boundary-layer moisture and steering flow that could either allow brief clearing for readings near 32 °C or sustain widespread clouds and showers capping the maximum at 30–31 °C. Historical September climatology places average highs around 30–31 °C, so the market spread reflects genuine uncertainty in how quickly instability will organize rather than any major shift in large-scale conditions. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 24 hours will likely tighten the distribution before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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