**The market centers on whether USDA APHIS confirms New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) myiasis in U.S. livestock (cattle, sheep, goats, or similar) outside Texas by the resolution date.** The first U.S. case since 1966 occurred June 3, 2026, in a Zavala County, Texas calf; subsequent detections reached 44 Texas cases (cattle, sheep, goats) and one New Mexico dog by early August 2026, with no livestock detections reported beyond Texas. The outbreak traces to the 2023 resurgence in Panama/Costa Rica that spread north through Mexico. USDA leads an aggressive response using sterile insect technique releases (now exceeding 80 million flies weekly from new Texas and Mexican facilities), 20 km infested zones with movement quarantines, expanded trapping/surveillance (including drones and wildlife monitoring), and border import restrictions. As of late August 2026, some Texas zones are being released after meeting criteria, and phased livestock import reopenings from Mexico began under joint control plans. No locally acquired human cases have occurred. Trader sentiment reflects confidence in these measures containing spread to livestock in adjacent states, tempered by the fly’s rapid reproductive potential and any new model forecasts or detections near borders. Surveillance dashboards and zone status updates from APHIS and state partners remain the key near-term data releases.