Persistent geopolitical tensions and Iranian enforcement measures in the Strait of Hormuz continue to suppress commercial transits, positioning 5-10 and 0-5 daily averages as the leading market-implied outcomes at 47.5% and 37.5%. Recent Kpler and Windward data show volumes stuck in single digits to low double digits through early September 2026—well below the pre-conflict baseline of roughly 70-138 vessels per day—driven by IRGC route controls, secondary sanctions exposure, elevated war-risk premiums, and operator caution amid fluctuating U.S.-Iran dynamics. Traders appear to price in sustained low throughput through month-end absent a clear diplomatic breakthrough or de-escalation, with higher bins (10+) reflecting only modest recovery probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of September?
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of September?
5-10 48%
0-5 38%
10-15 7%
15-20 5.3%
$13,688 Vol.
$13,688 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
0-5
38%
5-10
48%
10-15
7%
15-20
5%
20-25
2%
25-30
4%
30+
3%
5-10 48%
0-5 38%
10-15 7%
15-20 5.3%
$13,688 Vol.
$13,688 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
0-5
$3,072 Vol.
38%
5-10
$2,225 Vol.
48%
10-15
$2,800 Vol.
7%
15-20
$737 Vol.
5%
20-25
$290 Vol.
2%
25-30
$4,266 Vol.
4%
30+
$298 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions and Iranian enforcement measures in the Strait of Hormuz continue to suppress commercial transits, positioning 5-10 and 0-5 daily averages as the leading market-implied outcomes at 47.5% and 37.5%. Recent Kpler and Windward data show volumes stuck in single digits to low double digits through early September 2026—well below the pre-conflict baseline of roughly 70-138 vessels per day—driven by IRGC route controls, secondary sanctions exposure, elevated war-risk premiums, and operator caution amid fluctuating U.S.-Iran dynamics. Traders appear to price in sustained low throughput through month-end absent a clear diplomatic breakthrough or de-escalation, with higher bins (10+) reflecting only modest recovery probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 6:58 PM ET
Volume
$13,688End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 6:58 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions and Iranian enforcement measures in the Strait of Hormuz continue to suppress commercial transits, positioning 5-10 and 0-5 daily averages as the leading market-implied outcomes at 47.5% and 37.5%. Recent Kpler and Windward data show volumes stuck in single digits to low double digits through early September 2026—well below the pre-conflict baseline of roughly 70-138 vessels per day—driven by IRGC route controls, secondary sanctions exposure, elevated war-risk premiums, and operator caution amid fluctuating U.S.-Iran dynamics. Traders appear to price in sustained low throughput through month-end absent a clear diplomatic breakthrough or de-escalation, with higher bins (10+) reflecting only modest recovery probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$13,688End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 6:58 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent geopolitical tensions and Iranian enforcement measures in the Strait of Hormuz continue to suppress commercial transits, positioning 5-10 and 0-5 daily averages as the leading market-implied outcomes at 47.5% and 37.5%. Recent Kpler and Windward data show volumes stuck in single digits to low double digits through early September 2026—well below the pre-conflict baseline of roughly 70-138 vessels per day—driven by IRGC route controls, secondary sanctions exposure, elevated war-risk premiums, and operator caution amid fluctuating U.S.-Iran dynamics. Traders appear to price in sustained low throughput through month-end absent a clear diplomatic breakthrough or de-escalation, with higher bins (10+) reflecting only modest recovery probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions