**Persistent security risks from Houthi activity and regional conflict continue to suppress vessel traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, keeping market-implied odds heavily skewed toward sub-30 daily averages at end-September.** Elevated war-risk premiums, carrier rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, and selective targeting of Saudi-linked tonnage have capped transits well below the pre-2023 baseline of 60–72 vessels per day. Recent data show averages in the low-to-mid 30s earlier in 2026 giving way to sharper volatility after the July Houthi blockade declaration, with daily crossings frequently falling to 11–25 amid missile/drone threats and dark-AIS activity. As of early September 2026, fresh Houthi offensives near the strait and expanded blockade enforcement have reinforced caution, limiting any sustained rebound. Major container lines treat Suez/Bab el-Mandeb routings as conditional at best, while tanker flows remain thin outside shadow-fleet or exempted Chinese vessels. With resolution still weeks away and no clear de-escalation in sight, the combined 83%+ probability on <25 and 25–29 brackets reflects trader consensus that near-term averages will stay structurally depressed by insurance costs, schedule uncertainty, and ongoing chokepoint risk rather than normalize toward historical norms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of September?
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of September?
<25 46.7%
25-29 37%
30-34 9.3%
35-39 6%
$14,532 Vol.
$14,532 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<25
47%
25-29
37%
30-34
9%
35-39
6%
40+
3%
<25 46.7%
25-29 37%
30-34 9.3%
35-39 6%
$14,532 Vol.
$14,532 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<25
$2,579 Vol.
47%
25-29
$5,403 Vol.
37%
30-34
$3,126 Vol.
9%
35-39
$1,621 Vol.
6%
40+
$1,804 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Persistent security risks from Houthi activity and regional conflict continue to suppress vessel traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, keeping market-implied odds heavily skewed toward sub-30 daily averages at end-September.**
Elevated war-risk premiums, carrier rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, and selective targeting of Saudi-linked tonnage have capped transits well below the pre-2023 baseline of 60–72 vessels per day. Recent data show averages in the low-to-mid 30s earlier in 2026 giving way to sharper volatility after the July Houthi blockade declaration, with daily crossings frequently falling to 11–25 amid missile/drone threats and dark-AIS activity. As of early September 2026, fresh Houthi offensives near the strait and expanded blockade enforcement have reinforced caution, limiting any sustained rebound.
Major container lines treat Suez/Bab el-Mandeb routings as conditional at best, while tanker flows remain thin outside shadow-fleet or exempted Chinese vessels. With resolution still weeks away and no clear de-escalation in sight, the combined 83%+ probability on <25 and 25–29 brackets reflects trader consensus that near-term averages will stay structurally depressed by insurance costs, schedule uncertainty, and ongoing chokepoint risk rather than normalize toward historical norms.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Volume
$14,532End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolution Source
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Persistent security risks from Houthi activity and regional conflict continue to suppress vessel traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, keeping market-implied odds heavily skewed toward sub-30 daily averages at end-September.**
Elevated war-risk premiums, carrier rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, and selective targeting of Saudi-linked tonnage have capped transits well below the pre-2023 baseline of 60–72 vessels per day. Recent data show averages in the low-to-mid 30s earlier in 2026 giving way to sharper volatility after the July Houthi blockade declaration, with daily crossings frequently falling to 11–25 amid missile/drone threats and dark-AIS activity. As of early September 2026, fresh Houthi offensives near the strait and expanded blockade enforcement have reinforced caution, limiting any sustained rebound.
Major container lines treat Suez/Bab el-Mandeb routings as conditional at best, while tanker flows remain thin outside shadow-fleet or exempted Chinese vessels. With resolution still weeks away and no clear de-escalation in sight, the combined 83%+ probability on <25 and 25–29 brackets reflects trader consensus that near-term averages will stay structurally depressed by insurance costs, schedule uncertainty, and ongoing chokepoint risk rather than normalize toward historical norms.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$14,532End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolution Source
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent security risks from Houthi activity and regional conflict continue to suppress vessel traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, keeping market-implied odds heavily skewed toward sub-30 daily averages at end-September.** Elevated war-risk premiums, carrier rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, and selective targeting of Saudi-linked tonnage have capped transits well below the pre-2023 baseline of 60–72 vessels per day. Recent data show averages in the low-to-mid 30s earlier in 2026 giving way to sharper volatility after the July Houthi blockade declaration, with daily crossings frequently falling to 11–25 amid missile/drone threats and dark-AIS activity. As of early September 2026, fresh Houthi offensives near the strait and expanded blockade enforcement have reinforced caution, limiting any sustained rebound. Major container lines treat Suez/Bab el-Mandeb routings as conditional at best, while tanker flows remain thin outside shadow-fleet or exempted Chinese vessels. With resolution still weeks away and no clear de-escalation in sight, the combined 83%+ probability on <25 and 25–29 brackets reflects trader consensus that near-term averages will stay structurally depressed by insurance costs, schedule uncertainty, and ongoing chokepoint risk rather than normalize toward historical norms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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