**Persistent Houthi threats and targeted attacks on Saudi-linked tankers, combined with elevated war-risk premiums, continue to suppress traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.** Recent July 2026 blockade declarations and strikes have driven compliant transits toward 20–35 vessels per day in monitored periods, well below 2023 peaks near 70, with shadow-fleet and dark activity filling gaps amid Hormuz disruptions. These dynamics position the <25 and 25–29 bins as market leaders, reflecting trader consensus on sustained rerouting incentives and selective enforcement risks into late September. Upcoming catalysts include any escalation in Houthi ground operations near the strait or shifts in carrier routing decisions, which could further compress volumes or support modest recovery if premiums ease.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of September?
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of September?
<25 46.7%
25-29 37%
30-34 9.3%
35-39 6%
$14,530 Vol.
$14,530 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<25
47%
25-29
37%
30-34
9%
35-39
6%
40+
2%
<25 46.7%
25-29 37%
30-34 9.3%
35-39 6%
$14,530 Vol.
$14,530 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<25
$2,577 Vol.
47%
25-29
$5,403 Vol.
37%
30-34
$3,126 Vol.
9%
35-39
$1,621 Vol.
6%
40+
$1,804 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Persistent Houthi threats and targeted attacks on Saudi-linked tankers, combined with elevated war-risk premiums, continue to suppress traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.** Recent July 2026 blockade declarations and strikes have driven compliant transits toward 20–35 vessels per day in monitored periods, well below 2023 peaks near 70, with shadow-fleet and dark activity filling gaps amid Hormuz disruptions. These dynamics position the <25 and 25–29 bins as market leaders, reflecting trader consensus on sustained rerouting incentives and selective enforcement risks into late September. Upcoming catalysts include any escalation in Houthi ground operations near the strait or shifts in carrier routing decisions, which could further compress volumes or support modest recovery if premiums ease.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Volume
$14,530End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolution Source
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Persistent Houthi threats and targeted attacks on Saudi-linked tankers, combined with elevated war-risk premiums, continue to suppress traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.** Recent July 2026 blockade declarations and strikes have driven compliant transits toward 20–35 vessels per day in monitored periods, well below 2023 peaks near 70, with shadow-fleet and dark activity filling gaps amid Hormuz disruptions. These dynamics position the <25 and 25–29 bins as market leaders, reflecting trader consensus on sustained rerouting incentives and selective enforcement risks into late September. Upcoming catalysts include any escalation in Houthi ground operations near the strait or shifts in carrier routing decisions, which could further compress volumes or support modest recovery if premiums ease.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$14,530End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolution Source
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent Houthi threats and targeted attacks on Saudi-linked tankers, combined with elevated war-risk premiums, continue to suppress traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.** Recent July 2026 blockade declarations and strikes have driven compliant transits toward 20–35 vessels per day in monitored periods, well below 2023 peaks near 70, with shadow-fleet and dark activity filling gaps amid Hormuz disruptions. These dynamics position the <25 and 25–29 bins as market leaders, reflecting trader consensus on sustained rerouting incentives and selective enforcement risks into late September. Upcoming catalysts include any escalation in Houthi ground operations near the strait or shifts in carrier routing decisions, which could further compress volumes or support modest recovery if premiums ease.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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