Recent July CPI data at 3.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.5%, has anchored market-implied odds for the August reading near 3.4%, as traders price in modest monthly gains from rebounding gasoline prices and persistent shelter costs. TD Securities and other forecasts anticipate a 0.39% headline month-over-month increase, consistent with the 46.5% probability on 3.4% and 30% on 3.3%, reflecting stabilization after earlier energy-driven volatility. Core pressures remain elevated in services, supporting the 17% odds on 3.5%, while downside risks from softer goods prices keep 3.2% at 8%. The September 11 release will resolve the contract amid ongoing Fed focus on inflation above the 2% target.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3.4% 47%
3.3% 30%
3.5% 18%
3.2% 8.3%
$71,382 Vol.
$71,382 Vol.
Sep 10, 2026
≤2.9%
<1%
3.0%
1%
3.1%
2%
3.2%
8%
3.3%
30%
3.4%
47%
3.5%
18%
3.6%
2%
3.7%
2%
3.8%
1%
3.9%
<1%
≥4.0%
1%
3.4% 47%
3.3% 30%
3.5% 18%
3.2% 8.3%
$71,382 Vol.
$71,382 Vol.
Sep 10, 2026
≤2.9%
$1,555 Vol.
<1%
3.0%
$1,527 Vol.
1%
3.1%
$1,626 Vol.
2%
3.2%
$2,379 Vol.
8%
3.3%
$15,869 Vol.
30%
3.4%
$27,874 Vol.
47%
3.5%
$11,665 Vol.
18%
3.6%
$2,290 Vol.
2%
3.7%
$1,569 Vol.
2%
3.8%
$1,174 Vol.
1%
3.9%
$1,266 Vol.
<1%
≥4.0%
$2,588 Vol.
1%
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July CPI data at 3.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.5%, has anchored market-implied odds for the August reading near 3.4%, as traders price in modest monthly gains from rebounding gasoline prices and persistent shelter costs. TD Securities and other forecasts anticipate a 0.39% headline month-over-month increase, consistent with the 46.5% probability on 3.4% and 30% on 3.3%, reflecting stabilization after earlier energy-driven volatility. Core pressures remain elevated in services, supporting the 17% odds on 3.5%, while downside risks from softer goods prices keep 3.2% at 8%. The September 11 release will resolve the contract amid ongoing Fed focus on inflation above the 2% target.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM ET
Volume
$71,382End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July CPI data at 3.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.5%, has anchored market-implied odds for the August reading near 3.4%, as traders price in modest monthly gains from rebounding gasoline prices and persistent shelter costs. TD Securities and other forecasts anticipate a 0.39% headline month-over-month increase, consistent with the 46.5% probability on 3.4% and 30% on 3.3%, reflecting stabilization after earlier energy-driven volatility. Core pressures remain elevated in services, supporting the 17% odds on 3.5%, while downside risks from softer goods prices keep 3.2% at 8%. The September 11 release will resolve the contract amid ongoing Fed focus on inflation above the 2% target.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$71,382End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July CPI data at 3.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.5%, has anchored market-implied odds for the August reading near 3.4%, as traders price in modest monthly gains from rebounding gasoline prices and persistent shelter costs. TD Securities and other forecasts anticipate a 0.39% headline month-over-month increase, consistent with the 46.5% probability on 3.4% and 30% on 3.3%, reflecting stabilization after earlier energy-driven volatility. Core pressures remain elevated in services, supporting the 17% odds on 3.5%, while downside risks from softer goods prices keep 3.2% at 8%. The September 11 release will resolve the contract amid ongoing Fed focus on inflation above the 2% target.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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