**Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a global surface temperature anomaly exceeding 1.29 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline for August 2026 at 99.5% implied probability.** This positioning stems from record ocean heat content, with extra-polar sea surface temperatures reaching a new daily high of 21.1 °C on August 22 amid a rapidly intensifying El Niño event that has already driven July anomalies to approximately 1.47–1.56 °C per Copernicus and Berkeley Earth analyses. Long-term anthropogenic warming superimposed on this strong El Niño phase—now exceeding prior events in subsurface heat—has sustained elevated tropospheric and surface readings, as confirmed in early UAH satellite data showing a +0.68 °C departure from the 1991–2020 mean. Upcoming final dataset releases from NOAA, NASA, and Copernicus could refine the exact value, but only major downward revisions in processing would realistically alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
>1.29ºC 99.4%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
<1.10ºC <1%
$14,173 Vol.
$14,173 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
<1.10ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
1%
1.25–1.29ºC
1%
>1.29ºC
99%
>1.29ºC 99.4%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
<1.10ºC <1%
$14,173 Vol.
$14,173 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
<1.10ºC
$877 Vol.
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$999 Vol.
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
$1,121 Vol.
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
$2,099 Vol.
1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$2,783 Vol.
1%
>1.29ºC
$6,294 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.**Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a global surface temperature anomaly exceeding 1.29 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline for August 2026 at 99.5% implied probability.** This positioning stems from record ocean heat content, with extra-polar sea surface temperatures reaching a new daily high of 21.1 °C on August 22 amid a rapidly intensifying El Niño event that has already driven July anomalies to approximately 1.47–1.56 °C per Copernicus and Berkeley Earth analyses. Long-term anthropogenic warming superimposed on this strong El Niño phase—now exceeding prior events in subsurface heat—has sustained elevated tropospheric and surface readings, as confirmed in early UAH satellite data showing a +0.68 °C departure from the 1991–2020 mean.
Upcoming final dataset releases from NOAA, NASA, and Copernicus could refine the exact value, but only major downward revisions in processing would realistically alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$14,173End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.**Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a global surface temperature anomaly exceeding 1.29 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline for August 2026 at 99.5% implied probability.** This positioning stems from record ocean heat content, with extra-polar sea surface temperatures reaching a new daily high of 21.1 °C on August 22 amid a rapidly intensifying El Niño event that has already driven July anomalies to approximately 1.47–1.56 °C per Copernicus and Berkeley Earth analyses. Long-term anthropogenic warming superimposed on this strong El Niño phase—now exceeding prior events in subsurface heat—has sustained elevated tropospheric and surface readings, as confirmed in early UAH satellite data showing a +0.68 °C departure from the 1991–2020 mean.
Upcoming final dataset releases from NOAA, NASA, and Copernicus could refine the exact value, but only major downward revisions in processing would realistically alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$14,173End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a global surface temperature anomaly exceeding 1.29 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline for August 2026 at 99.5% implied probability.** This positioning stems from record ocean heat content, with extra-polar sea surface temperatures reaching a new daily high of 21.1 °C on August 22 amid a rapidly intensifying El Niño event that has already driven July anomalies to approximately 1.47–1.56 °C per Copernicus and Berkeley Earth analyses. Long-term anthropogenic warming superimposed on this strong El Niño phase—now exceeding prior events in subsurface heat—has sustained elevated tropospheric and surface readings, as confirmed in early UAH satellite data showing a +0.68 °C departure from the 1991–2020 mean. Upcoming final dataset releases from NOAA, NASA, and Copernicus could refine the exact value, but only major downward revisions in processing would realistically alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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