**Russian forces have conducted incremental advances in northern Kharkiv Oblast toward the Velykyi Burluk direction since mid-2025, capturing or contesting nearby settlements such as Odradne and Dvorichansk, but ISW assessments show no confirmed Russian control over any part of Khatnie (also spelled Khatne), a small village east of Velykyi Burluk.** Ukrainian defensive positions and counterattacks have held the line in this sector, limiting Russian gains to gradual pressure through artillery, glide bombs, and localized assaults amid high attrition. Polymarket trader consensus reflects this reality through low implied probabilities (often single digits to low teens for near-term dates), consistent with the slow pace of operations and Ukrainian reinforcements. Resolution depends strictly on ISW mapping of territorial control persisting across updates. Potential near-term catalysts include intensified Russian strikes or Ukrainian force reallocations, though no major verified shifts have altered the local frontline recently.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Russia enter Khatnie by...?
Will Russia enter Khatnie by...?
$207,270 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
25%
$207,270 Vol.
December 31
$12,971 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Khatnie, Kharkiv Oblast, (50.121266° N, 37.565909° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.**Russian forces have conducted incremental advances in northern Kharkiv Oblast toward the Velykyi Burluk direction since mid-2025, capturing or contesting nearby settlements such as Odradne and Dvorichansk, but ISW assessments show no confirmed Russian control over any part of Khatnie (also spelled Khatne), a small village east of Velykyi Burluk.**
Ukrainian defensive positions and counterattacks have held the line in this sector, limiting Russian gains to gradual pressure through artillery, glide bombs, and localized assaults amid high attrition. Polymarket trader consensus reflects this reality through low implied probabilities (often single digits to low teens for near-term dates), consistent with the slow pace of operations and Ukrainian reinforcements. Resolution depends strictly on ISW mapping of territorial control persisting across updates. Potential near-term catalysts include intensified Russian strikes or Ukrainian force reallocations, though no major verified shifts have altered the local frontline recently.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Khatnie, Kharkiv Oblast, (50.121266° N, 37.565909° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 24, 2026, 10:11 PM ET
Volume
$207,270End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 24, 2026, 10:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Khatnie, Kharkiv Oblast, (50.121266° N, 37.565909° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.**Russian forces have conducted incremental advances in northern Kharkiv Oblast toward the Velykyi Burluk direction since mid-2025, capturing or contesting nearby settlements such as Odradne and Dvorichansk, but ISW assessments show no confirmed Russian control over any part of Khatnie (also spelled Khatne), a small village east of Velykyi Burluk.**
Ukrainian defensive positions and counterattacks have held the line in this sector, limiting Russian gains to gradual pressure through artillery, glide bombs, and localized assaults amid high attrition. Polymarket trader consensus reflects this reality through low implied probabilities (often single digits to low teens for near-term dates), consistent with the slow pace of operations and Ukrainian reinforcements. Resolution depends strictly on ISW mapping of territorial control persisting across updates. Potential near-term catalysts include intensified Russian strikes or Ukrainian force reallocations, though no major verified shifts have altered the local frontline recently.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Khatnie, Kharkiv Oblast, (50.121266° N, 37.565909° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$207,270End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 24, 2026, 10:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Russian forces have conducted incremental advances in northern Kharkiv Oblast toward the Velykyi Burluk direction since mid-2025, capturing or contesting nearby settlements such as Odradne and Dvorichansk, but ISW assessments show no confirmed Russian control over any part of Khatnie (also spelled Khatne), a small village east of Velykyi Burluk.** Ukrainian defensive positions and counterattacks have held the line in this sector, limiting Russian gains to gradual pressure through artillery, glide bombs, and localized assaults amid high attrition. Polymarket trader consensus reflects this reality through low implied probabilities (often single digits to low teens for near-term dates), consistent with the slow pace of operations and Ukrainian reinforcements. Resolution depends strictly on ISW mapping of territorial control persisting across updates. Potential near-term catalysts include intensified Russian strikes or Ukrainian force reallocations, though no major verified shifts have altered the local frontline recently.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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