Recent cabinet turnover—including firings of Kristi Noem and Pam Bondi plus resignations tied to personal or performance issues—has already exceeded first-term patterns, yet trader consensus now centers on stability through year-end, pricing "none before 2027" highest. Pete Hegseth faces elevated scrutiny after the Army secretary's recent resignation over personnel decisions and leadership style at the Pentagon. Susie Wiles remains a steady presence but draws attention as the administration approaches midterms and potential policy friction points. Doug Burgum, Lee Zeldin, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Russell Vought register modestly due to narrower portfolios or occasional public friction, while broader confirmation of replacements and focus on legislative priorities have reduced near-term departure signals across most Senate-confirmed roles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNone before 2027 49.9%
Pete Hegseth 9.7%
Susie Wiles 7.4%
Doug Burgum 5.4%
$45,921 Vol.
$45,921 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
None before 2027
50%
Pete Hegseth
10%
Susie Wiles
7%
Doug Burgum
5%
Lee Zeldin
5%
Russell T. Vought
5%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
5%
Scott Bessent
4%
Mike Waltz
4%
John Ratcliffe
3%
Howard Lutnick
3%
Brooke Rollins
2%
Scott Turner
2%
Sean Duffy
2%
Chris Wright
2%
J.D. Vance
2%
Jamieson Greer
2%
Marco Rubio
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
Doug Collins
1%
Kelly Loeffler
1%
None before 2027 49.9%
Pete Hegseth 9.7%
Susie Wiles 7.4%
Doug Burgum 5.4%
$45,921 Vol.
$45,921 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
None before 2027
$9,660 Vol.
50%
Pete Hegseth
$1,010 Vol.
10%
Susie Wiles
$3,418 Vol.
7%
Doug Burgum
$924 Vol.
5%
Lee Zeldin
$636 Vol.
5%
Russell T. Vought
$478 Vol.
5%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$18,644 Vol.
5%
Scott Bessent
$2,511 Vol.
4%
Mike Waltz
$748 Vol.
4%
John Ratcliffe
$549 Vol.
3%
Howard Lutnick
$870 Vol.
3%
Brooke Rollins
$670 Vol.
2%
Scott Turner
$351 Vol.
2%
Sean Duffy
$632 Vol.
2%
Chris Wright
$730 Vol.
2%
J.D. Vance
$591 Vol.
2%
Jamieson Greer
$517 Vol.
2%
Marco Rubio
$550 Vol.
1%
Linda McMahon
$947 Vol.
1%
Doug Collins
$658 Vol.
1%
Kelly Loeffler
$826 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent cabinet turnover—including firings of Kristi Noem and Pam Bondi plus resignations tied to personal or performance issues—has already exceeded first-term patterns, yet trader consensus now centers on stability through year-end, pricing "none before 2027" highest. Pete Hegseth faces elevated scrutiny after the Army secretary's recent resignation over personnel decisions and leadership style at the Pentagon. Susie Wiles remains a steady presence but draws attention as the administration approaches midterms and potential policy friction points. Doug Burgum, Lee Zeldin, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Russell Vought register modestly due to narrower portfolios or occasional public friction, while broader confirmation of replacements and focus on legislative priorities have reduced near-term departure signals across most Senate-confirmed roles.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Market Opened: May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$45,921End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent cabinet turnover—including firings of Kristi Noem and Pam Bondi plus resignations tied to personal or performance issues—has already exceeded first-term patterns, yet trader consensus now centers on stability through year-end, pricing "none before 2027" highest. Pete Hegseth faces elevated scrutiny after the Army secretary's recent resignation over personnel decisions and leadership style at the Pentagon. Susie Wiles remains a steady presence but draws attention as the administration approaches midterms and potential policy friction points. Doug Burgum, Lee Zeldin, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Russell Vought register modestly due to narrower portfolios or occasional public friction, while broader confirmation of replacements and focus on legislative priorities have reduced near-term departure signals across most Senate-confirmed roles.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$45,921End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent cabinet turnover—including firings of Kristi Noem and Pam Bondi plus resignations tied to personal or performance issues—has already exceeded first-term patterns, yet trader consensus now centers on stability through year-end, pricing "none before 2027" highest. Pete Hegseth faces elevated scrutiny after the Army secretary's recent resignation over personnel decisions and leadership style at the Pentagon. Susie Wiles remains a steady presence but draws attention as the administration approaches midterms and potential policy friction points. Doug Burgum, Lee Zeldin, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Russell Vought register modestly due to narrower portfolios or occasional public friction, while broader confirmation of replacements and focus on legislative priorities have reduced near-term departure signals across most Senate-confirmed roles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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