Toy Story 5’s $160 million domestic opening in June established it as the year’s second-highest debut at the time, trailing only Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million July launch and outpacing The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s $132 million and The Odyssey’s $124 million starts. Strong critical reception near 93 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, an A CinemaScore, and broad family appeal sustained its momentum through summer competition, creating a clear gap that later releases have yet to close. Traders assign it 94.5 percent implied probability for third place because remaining 2026 tentpoles such as Avengers: Doomsday face holiday timing and direct competition that make surpassing $160 million unlikely. An upset would require one of those December or fall films to deliver an unexpectedly massive opening weekend driven by presales or cultural hype.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhich movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Which movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Toy Story 5 95%
Dune: Messiah 4.5%
Avengers: Doomsday 1.8%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping <1%
$25,712 Vol.
$25,712 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Toy Story 5
95%
Dune: Messiah
5%
Avengers: Doomsday
2%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
1%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
<1%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
<1%
Toy Story 5 95%
Dune: Messiah 4.5%
Avengers: Doomsday 1.8%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping <1%
$25,712 Vol.
$25,712 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Toy Story 5
$18,109 Vol.
95%
Dune: Messiah
$1,421 Vol.
5%
Avengers: Doomsday
$1,065 Vol.
2%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
$981 Vol.
1%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
$1,642 Vol.
<1%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
$860 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Toy Story 5’s $160 million domestic opening in June established it as the year’s second-highest debut at the time, trailing only Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million July launch and outpacing The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s $132 million and The Odyssey’s $124 million starts. Strong critical reception near 93 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, an A CinemaScore, and broad family appeal sustained its momentum through summer competition, creating a clear gap that later releases have yet to close. Traders assign it 94.5 percent implied probability for third place because remaining 2026 tentpoles such as Avengers: Doomsday face holiday timing and direct competition that make surpassing $160 million unlikely. An upset would require one of those December or fall films to deliver an unexpectedly massive opening weekend driven by presales or cultural hype.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ET
Volume
$25,712End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Toy Story 5’s $160 million domestic opening in June established it as the year’s second-highest debut at the time, trailing only Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million July launch and outpacing The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s $132 million and The Odyssey’s $124 million starts. Strong critical reception near 93 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, an A CinemaScore, and broad family appeal sustained its momentum through summer competition, creating a clear gap that later releases have yet to close. Traders assign it 94.5 percent implied probability for third place because remaining 2026 tentpoles such as Avengers: Doomsday face holiday timing and direct competition that make surpassing $160 million unlikely. An upset would require one of those December or fall films to deliver an unexpectedly massive opening weekend driven by presales or cultural hype.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$25,712End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Toy Story 5’s $160 million domestic opening in June established it as the year’s second-highest debut at the time, trailing only Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million July launch and outpacing The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s $132 million and The Odyssey’s $124 million starts. Strong critical reception near 93 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, an A CinemaScore, and broad family appeal sustained its momentum through summer competition, creating a clear gap that later releases have yet to close. Traders assign it 94.5 percent implied probability for third place because remaining 2026 tentpoles such as Avengers: Doomsday face holiday timing and direct competition that make surpassing $160 million unlikely. An upset would require one of those December or fall films to deliver an unexpectedly massive opening weekend driven by presales or cultural hype.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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