Julianne Moore leads the early 2027 Best Actress market at 59% implied probability thanks to glowing reviews for her lead role in Jesse Eisenberg’s musical dramedy *The Debut*, which premiered to strong buzz at Telluride. Traders view the five-time nominee’s career-highlight turn as an Academy-friendly vehicle with built-in voter goodwill and historical precedent for second wins. The broad field remains tightly bunched around 50% for most contenders, reflecting the speculative nature of the race this far out, while Inde Navarrette (*Obsession*), Renate Reinsve (*Fjord*), and Sandra Hüller (*Rose*) sit lower amid festival tracking and project-specific momentum. Key swing factors ahead include additional fall festival reactions, guild precursors, and how late-2026 releases reshape the narrative before nominations voting opens in January 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOscars 2027: Best Actress Winner
Oscars 2027: Best Actress Winner
Julianne Moore 59%
Inde Navarrette 18%
Renate Reinsve 10%
Sandra Hüller 7.6%
$126,289 Vol.
$126,289 Vol.
Mar 14, 2027
Julianne Moore
59%
Inde Navarrette
18%
Renate Reinsve
10%
Sandra Hüller
8%
Ruth Madeley
2%
Virginie Efira
2%
Scarlett Johansson
1%
Sophie Okonedo
1%
Rachel Brosnahan
<1%
Michelle Williams
<1%
Léa Seydoux
<1%
Julianne Moore 59%
Inde Navarrette 18%
Renate Reinsve 10%
Sandra Hüller 7.6%
$126,289 Vol.
$126,289 Vol.
Mar 14, 2027
Julianne Moore
$85,527 Vol.
59%
Inde Navarrette
$22,422 Vol.
18%
Renate Reinsve
$12,563 Vol.
10%
Sandra Hüller
$3,367 Vol.
8%
Ruth Madeley
$678 Vol.
2%
Virginie Efira
$168 Vol.
2%
Scarlett Johansson
$169 Vol.
1%
Sophie Okonedo
$100 Vol.
1%
Rachel Brosnahan
$202 Vol.
<1%
Michelle Williams
$255 Vol.
<1%
Léa Seydoux
$837 Vol.
<1%
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed actress who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actress.
If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actress when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actress whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Julianne Moore leads the early 2027 Best Actress market at 59% implied probability thanks to glowing reviews for her lead role in Jesse Eisenberg’s musical dramedy *The Debut*, which premiered to strong buzz at Telluride. Traders view the five-time nominee’s career-highlight turn as an Academy-friendly vehicle with built-in voter goodwill and historical precedent for second wins. The broad field remains tightly bunched around 50% for most contenders, reflecting the speculative nature of the race this far out, while Inde Navarrette (*Obsession*), Renate Reinsve (*Fjord*), and Sandra Hüller (*Rose*) sit lower amid festival tracking and project-specific momentum. Key swing factors ahead include additional fall festival reactions, guild precursors, and how late-2026 releases reshape the narrative before nominations voting opens in January 2027.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed actress who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actress.
If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actress when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actress whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed actress who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actress.
If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actress when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actress whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 11:34 AM ET
Volume
$126,289End Date
Mar 14, 2027Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 11:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed actress who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actress.
If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actress when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actress whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Julianne Moore leads the early 2027 Best Actress market at 59% implied probability thanks to glowing reviews for her lead role in Jesse Eisenberg’s musical dramedy *The Debut*, which premiered to strong buzz at Telluride. Traders view the five-time nominee’s career-highlight turn as an Academy-friendly vehicle with built-in voter goodwill and historical precedent for second wins. The broad field remains tightly bunched around 50% for most contenders, reflecting the speculative nature of the race this far out, while Inde Navarrette (*Obsession*), Renate Reinsve (*Fjord*), and Sandra Hüller (*Rose*) sit lower amid festival tracking and project-specific momentum. Key swing factors ahead include additional fall festival reactions, guild precursors, and how late-2026 releases reshape the narrative before nominations voting opens in January 2027.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed actress who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actress.
If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actress when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actress whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed actress who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actress.
If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actress when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actress whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$126,289End Date
Mar 14, 2027Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 11:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Julianne Moore leads the early 2027 Best Actress market at 59% implied probability thanks to glowing reviews for her lead role in Jesse Eisenberg’s musical dramedy *The Debut*, which premiered to strong buzz at Telluride. Traders view the five-time nominee’s career-highlight turn as an Academy-friendly vehicle with built-in voter goodwill and historical precedent for second wins. The broad field remains tightly bunched around 50% for most contenders, reflecting the speculative nature of the race this far out, while Inde Navarrette (*Obsession*), Renate Reinsve (*Fjord*), and Sandra Hüller (*Rose*) sit lower amid festival tracking and project-specific momentum. Key swing factors ahead include additional fall festival reactions, guild precursors, and how late-2026 releases reshape the narrative before nominations voting opens in January 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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