American Doctor holds the clearest early edge in trader sentiment thanks to its Sundance premiere, strong festival awards including a Hot Docs audience prize, August theatrical release via Watermelon Pictures, and universal critical acclaim for its intimate portrait of U.S. physicians in Gaza. The rest of the field remains tightly bunched because most 2026 documentaries have yet to screen widely, leaving room for late-breaking entries to surge once fall festivals deliver their lineups. Once Upon a Time in Harlem benefits from its distinctive archival Harlem Renaissance footage and multi-festival run, while Nuisance Bear carries Sundance Grand Jury momentum and Musk draws on Alex Gibney’s track record. Historical precedent shows documentary winners frequently emerge from Telluride, TIFF, or NYFF buzz followed by guild and critics’ awards, so the next few months of premieres and reviews will likely reshape implied probabilities before nominations in January 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOscars 2027: Best Documentary Feature Film Winner
Oscars 2027: Best Documentary Feature Film Winner
American Doctor 37%
Once Upon a Time in Harlem 18%
One in a Million 14%
Nuisance Bear 7%
$18,036 Vol.
$18,036 Vol.
Mar 14, 2027
American Doctor
37%
Once Upon a Time in Harlem
24%
One in a Million
14%
Nuisance Bear
7%
Musk
5%
Tutu
5%
Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party
4%
American Doctor 37%
Once Upon a Time in Harlem 18%
One in a Million 14%
Nuisance Bear 7%
$18,036 Vol.
$18,036 Vol.
Mar 14, 2027
American Doctor
$7,578 Vol.
37%
Once Upon a Time in Harlem
$664 Vol.
24%
One in a Million
$1,548 Vol.
14%
Nuisance Bear
$7,423 Vol.
7%
Musk
$30 Vol.
5%
Tutu
$683 Vol.
5%
Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party
$110 Vol.
4%
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.American Doctor holds the clearest early edge in trader sentiment thanks to its Sundance premiere, strong festival awards including a Hot Docs audience prize, August theatrical release via Watermelon Pictures, and universal critical acclaim for its intimate portrait of U.S. physicians in Gaza. The rest of the field remains tightly bunched because most 2026 documentaries have yet to screen widely, leaving room for late-breaking entries to surge once fall festivals deliver their lineups. Once Upon a Time in Harlem benefits from its distinctive archival Harlem Renaissance footage and multi-festival run, while Nuisance Bear carries Sundance Grand Jury momentum and Musk draws on Alex Gibney’s track record. Historical precedent shows documentary winners frequently emerge from Telluride, TIFF, or NYFF buzz followed by guild and critics’ awards, so the next few months of premieres and reviews will likely reshape implied probabilities before nominations in January 2027.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 4:40 AM ET
Volume
$18,036End Date
Mar 14, 2027Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 4:40 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.American Doctor holds the clearest early edge in trader sentiment thanks to its Sundance premiere, strong festival awards including a Hot Docs audience prize, August theatrical release via Watermelon Pictures, and universal critical acclaim for its intimate portrait of U.S. physicians in Gaza. The rest of the field remains tightly bunched because most 2026 documentaries have yet to screen widely, leaving room for late-breaking entries to surge once fall festivals deliver their lineups. Once Upon a Time in Harlem benefits from its distinctive archival Harlem Renaissance footage and multi-festival run, while Nuisance Bear carries Sundance Grand Jury momentum and Musk draws on Alex Gibney’s track record. Historical precedent shows documentary winners frequently emerge from Telluride, TIFF, or NYFF buzz followed by guild and critics’ awards, so the next few months of premieres and reviews will likely reshape implied probabilities before nominations in January 2027.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$18,036End Date
Mar 14, 2027Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 4:40 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...American Doctor holds the clearest early edge in trader sentiment thanks to its Sundance premiere, strong festival awards including a Hot Docs audience prize, August theatrical release via Watermelon Pictures, and universal critical acclaim for its intimate portrait of U.S. physicians in Gaza. The rest of the field remains tightly bunched because most 2026 documentaries have yet to screen widely, leaving room for late-breaking entries to surge once fall festivals deliver their lineups. Once Upon a Time in Harlem benefits from its distinctive archival Harlem Renaissance footage and multi-festival run, while Nuisance Bear carries Sundance Grand Jury momentum and Musk draws on Alex Gibney’s track record. Historical precedent shows documentary winners frequently emerge from Telluride, TIFF, or NYFF buzz followed by guild and critics’ awards, so the next few months of premieres and reviews will likely reshape implied probabilities before nominations in January 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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