The Late Show With Stephen Colbert holds an 81% implied probability in the Outstanding Variety Series market due to its final-season narrative and dominant awards momentum. The CBS program earned a series-high nine nominations, including key technical and writing categories, before signing off in May 2026. Recent Creative Arts victories for its writing and short-form entries have reinforced voter goodwill ahead of the September 14 ceremony. The Television Academy’s shift to an area-award format—where nominees are evaluated individually against a 90% merit threshold—further favors established frontrunners like Colbert over competitors. Saturday Night Live, Last Week Tonight With John Oliver, The Daily Show, and Jimmy Kimmel Live! trail with single-digit odds, reflecting their strong but comparatively less resonant campaigns this cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEmmys 2026: Outstanding variety series
Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series
“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” 83%
“Saturday Night Live” 3.3%
“Last Week Tonight With John Oliver” 2.1%
“The Daily Show” 1.8%
$111,744 Vol.
$111,744 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert”
83%
“Saturday Night Live”
3%
“Last Week Tonight With John Oliver”
2%
“The Daily Show”
2%
“Jimmy Kimmel Live!”
2%
“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” 83%
“Saturday Night Live” 3.3%
“Last Week Tonight With John Oliver” 2.1%
“The Daily Show” 1.8%
$111,744 Vol.
$111,744 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert”
$36,793 Vol.
83%
“Saturday Night Live”
$13,271 Vol.
3%
“Last Week Tonight With John Oliver”
$21,256 Vol.
2%
“The Daily Show”
$14,536 Vol.
2%
“Jimmy Kimmel Live!”
$25,888 Vol.
2%
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Late Show With Stephen Colbert holds an 81% implied probability in the Outstanding Variety Series market due to its final-season narrative and dominant awards momentum. The CBS program earned a series-high nine nominations, including key technical and writing categories, before signing off in May 2026. Recent Creative Arts victories for its writing and short-form entries have reinforced voter goodwill ahead of the September 14 ceremony. The Television Academy’s shift to an area-award format—where nominees are evaluated individually against a 90% merit threshold—further favors established frontrunners like Colbert over competitors. Saturday Night Live, Last Week Tonight With John Oliver, The Daily Show, and Jimmy Kimmel Live! trail with single-digit odds, reflecting their strong but comparatively less resonant campaigns this cycle.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 9, 2026, 8:40 PM ET
Volume
$111,744End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 8:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Late Show With Stephen Colbert holds an 81% implied probability in the Outstanding Variety Series market due to its final-season narrative and dominant awards momentum. The CBS program earned a series-high nine nominations, including key technical and writing categories, before signing off in May 2026. Recent Creative Arts victories for its writing and short-form entries have reinforced voter goodwill ahead of the September 14 ceremony. The Television Academy’s shift to an area-award format—where nominees are evaluated individually against a 90% merit threshold—further favors established frontrunners like Colbert over competitors. Saturday Night Live, Last Week Tonight With John Oliver, The Daily Show, and Jimmy Kimmel Live! trail with single-digit odds, reflecting their strong but comparatively less resonant campaigns this cycle.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$111,744End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 8:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Late Show With Stephen Colbert holds an 81% implied probability in the Outstanding Variety Series market due to its final-season narrative and dominant awards momentum. The CBS program earned a series-high nine nominations, including key technical and writing categories, before signing off in May 2026. Recent Creative Arts victories for its writing and short-form entries have reinforced voter goodwill ahead of the September 14 ceremony. The Television Academy’s shift to an area-award format—where nominees are evaluated individually against a 90% merit threshold—further favors established frontrunners like Colbert over competitors. Saturday Night Live, Last Week Tonight With John Oliver, The Daily Show, and Jimmy Kimmel Live! trail with single-digit odds, reflecting their strong but comparatively less resonant campaigns this cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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