Anthropic's Claude models, including recent Fable 5.1 and Opus variants, have posted the highest overall LiveBench scores in multiple June and September 2026 snapshots, with strong results across coding, reasoning, math, and agentic categories on the benchmark's monthly refreshed, contamination-resistant questions. This established lead underpins the 90.5% market-implied odds, reflecting trader consensus on Anthropic's consistent frontier positioning ahead of OpenAI's o-series and GPT-5.x releases. A new OpenAI model launch or major capability jump in the final weeks of September could still shift the outcome, though historical release patterns and current benchmark gaps make such an overtake less likely before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 91%
OpenAI 5.0%
Meta <1%
Google <1%
$54,773 Vol.
$54,773 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
91%
OpenAI
5%
Meta
<1%
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 91%
OpenAI 5.0%
Meta <1%
Google <1%
$54,773 Vol.
$54,773 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$16,667 Vol.
91%
OpenAI
$13,009 Vol.
5%
Meta
$1,681 Vol.
<1%
$2,566 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$1,916 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$1,609 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$706 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$2,337 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$989 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$2,393 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$737 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$836 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$681 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$790 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$722 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,233 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$2,467 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$1,108 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$806 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$488 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,031 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's Claude models, including recent Fable 5.1 and Opus variants, have posted the highest overall LiveBench scores in multiple June and September 2026 snapshots, with strong results across coding, reasoning, math, and agentic categories on the benchmark's monthly refreshed, contamination-resistant questions. This established lead underpins the 90.5% market-implied odds, reflecting trader consensus on Anthropic's consistent frontier positioning ahead of OpenAI's o-series and GPT-5.x releases. A new OpenAI model launch or major capability jump in the final weeks of September could still shift the outcome, though historical release patterns and current benchmark gaps make such an overtake less likely before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
Volume
$54,773End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's Claude models, including recent Fable 5.1 and Opus variants, have posted the highest overall LiveBench scores in multiple June and September 2026 snapshots, with strong results across coding, reasoning, math, and agentic categories on the benchmark's monthly refreshed, contamination-resistant questions. This established lead underpins the 90.5% market-implied odds, reflecting trader consensus on Anthropic's consistent frontier positioning ahead of OpenAI's o-series and GPT-5.x releases. A new OpenAI model launch or major capability jump in the final weeks of September could still shift the outcome, though historical release patterns and current benchmark gaps make such an overtake less likely before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$54,773End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude models, including recent Fable 5.1 and Opus variants, have posted the highest overall LiveBench scores in multiple June and September 2026 snapshots, with strong results across coding, reasoning, math, and agentic categories on the benchmark's monthly refreshed, contamination-resistant questions. This established lead underpins the 90.5% market-implied odds, reflecting trader consensus on Anthropic's consistent frontier positioning ahead of OpenAI's o-series and GPT-5.x releases. A new OpenAI model launch or major capability jump in the final weeks of September could still shift the outcome, though historical release patterns and current benchmark gaps make such an overtake less likely before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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