Anthropic commands overwhelming trader consensus at 87.5% implied probability for the top LiveBench overall score by end of October, driven by the strong recent performance of its Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 series across multiple leaderboard snapshots. These models have posted competitive or leading results in categories such as coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks on the contamination-resistant benchmark, reflecting continued iteration and capability gains relative to OpenAI’s o3-mini and GPT-5.x variants, which trail at just 10%. With roughly eight weeks until resolution, limited near-term catalysts appear likely to shift the ranking, though new model releases, benchmark updates, or undisclosed capability jumps from any lab could still alter outcomes before the cutoff. Traders are pricing in Anthropic’s current momentum and execution track record as decisive.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 88%
OpenAI 8%
DeepSeek <1%
ByteDance <1%
$20,071 Vol.
$20,071 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
88%
OpenAI
8%
DeepSeek
1%
ByteDance
1%
Alibaba
1%
Moonshot
1%
Nvidia
1%
MiniMax
1%
StepFun
1%
Z.ai
1%
Amazon
1%
Meta
1%
1%
Baidu
1%
Mistral
1%
Tencent
1%
Thinky
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Anthropic 88%
OpenAI 8%
DeepSeek <1%
ByteDance <1%
$20,071 Vol.
$20,071 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$8,467 Vol.
88%
OpenAI
$2,945 Vol.
8%
DeepSeek
$435 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$492 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$386 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$465 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$498 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$471 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$445 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$433 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$481 Vol.
1%
Meta
$481 Vol.
1%
$411 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$494 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$459 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$492 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$445 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$445 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$425 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$457 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$443 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic commands overwhelming trader consensus at 87.5% implied probability for the top LiveBench overall score by end of October, driven by the strong recent performance of its Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 series across multiple leaderboard snapshots. These models have posted competitive or leading results in categories such as coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks on the contamination-resistant benchmark, reflecting continued iteration and capability gains relative to OpenAI’s o3-mini and GPT-5.x variants, which trail at just 10%. With roughly eight weeks until resolution, limited near-term catalysts appear likely to shift the ranking, though new model releases, benchmark updates, or undisclosed capability jumps from any lab could still alter outcomes before the cutoff. Traders are pricing in Anthropic’s current momentum and execution track record as decisive.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Volume
$20,071End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic commands overwhelming trader consensus at 87.5% implied probability for the top LiveBench overall score by end of October, driven by the strong recent performance of its Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 series across multiple leaderboard snapshots. These models have posted competitive or leading results in categories such as coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks on the contamination-resistant benchmark, reflecting continued iteration and capability gains relative to OpenAI’s o3-mini and GPT-5.x variants, which trail at just 10%. With roughly eight weeks until resolution, limited near-term catalysts appear likely to shift the ranking, though new model releases, benchmark updates, or undisclosed capability jumps from any lab could still alter outcomes before the cutoff. Traders are pricing in Anthropic’s current momentum and execution track record as decisive.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$20,071End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic commands overwhelming trader consensus at 87.5% implied probability for the top LiveBench overall score by end of October, driven by the strong recent performance of its Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 series across multiple leaderboard snapshots. These models have posted competitive or leading results in categories such as coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks on the contamination-resistant benchmark, reflecting continued iteration and capability gains relative to OpenAI’s o3-mini and GPT-5.x variants, which trail at just 10%. With roughly eight weeks until resolution, limited near-term catalysts appear likely to shift the ranking, though new model releases, benchmark updates, or undisclosed capability jumps from any lab could still alter outcomes before the cutoff. Traders are pricing in Anthropic’s current momentum and execution track record as decisive.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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