Anthropic's recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1, 2026, which topped the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index at 66—the first model above 65—underpins its 77% market-implied odds for the best AI model by end of October. Strong results across agentic coding benchmarks like SWE-bench Pro and Terminal-Bench, combined with a 1M-token context window and competitive pricing, have solidified trader consensus around Anthropic's frontier large language models. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra release on September 3 sits close in some evaluations but trails in composite scores, supporting its lower 10.9% odds, while Google's Gemini variants lag further at 11.2%. With roughly eight weeks until resolution, upcoming benchmark updates or capability demonstrations from these labs represent the main swing factors for the current positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 76%
OpenAI 11.3%
Google 10.9%
Meta 1.6%
$179,212 Vol.
$179,212 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
76%
OpenAI
11%
11%
Meta
2%
SpaceXAI
1%
Z.ai
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Baidu
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 76%
OpenAI 11.3%
Google 10.9%
Meta 1.6%
$179,212 Vol.
$179,212 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$31,930 Vol.
76%
OpenAI
$16,078 Vol.
11%
$15,461 Vol.
11%
Meta
$14,818 Vol.
2%
SpaceXAI
$10,849 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$14,228 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$10,384 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$11,650 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$13,891 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$8,948 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$8,398 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,471 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$2,066 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$7,360 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$925 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,262 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,800 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$4,875 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$949 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$540 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,327 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1, 2026, which topped the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index at 66—the first model above 65—underpins its 77% market-implied odds for the best AI model by end of October. Strong results across agentic coding benchmarks like SWE-bench Pro and Terminal-Bench, combined with a 1M-token context window and competitive pricing, have solidified trader consensus around Anthropic's frontier large language models. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra release on September 3 sits close in some evaluations but trails in composite scores, supporting its lower 10.9% odds, while Google's Gemini variants lag further at 11.2%. With roughly eight weeks until resolution, upcoming benchmark updates or capability demonstrations from these labs represent the main swing factors for the current positioning.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volume
$179,212End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1, 2026, which topped the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index at 66—the first model above 65—underpins its 77% market-implied odds for the best AI model by end of October. Strong results across agentic coding benchmarks like SWE-bench Pro and Terminal-Bench, combined with a 1M-token context window and competitive pricing, have solidified trader consensus around Anthropic's frontier large language models. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra release on September 3 sits close in some evaluations but trails in composite scores, supporting its lower 10.9% odds, while Google's Gemini variants lag further at 11.2%. With roughly eight weeks until resolution, upcoming benchmark updates or capability demonstrations from these labs represent the main swing factors for the current positioning.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$179,212End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's recent launch of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1, 2026, which topped the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index at 66—the first model above 65—underpins its 77% market-implied odds for the best AI model by end of October. Strong results across agentic coding benchmarks like SWE-bench Pro and Terminal-Bench, combined with a 1M-token context window and competitive pricing, have solidified trader consensus around Anthropic's frontier large language models. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra release on September 3 sits close in some evaluations but trails in composite scores, supporting its lower 10.9% odds, while Google's Gemini variants lag further at 11.2%. With roughly eight weeks until resolution, upcoming benchmark updates or capability demonstrations from these labs represent the main swing factors for the current positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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