Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking and related variants currently lead LiveBench mathematics with scores near 95-96% in recent snapshots, driven by strong performance on competition problems, olympiad-style tasks, and AMPS-hard questions that test genuine reasoning over pattern matching. Traders assign 91.5% implied probability to Anthropic because no other lab's frontier models, including OpenAI's o-series or GPT-5 variants, have displaced it on the live leaderboard despite rapid iteration across the sector. New LiveBench question sets released before month-end or a surprise capability jump from competitors like DeepSeek or xAI could still shift the outcome, though historical release patterns suggest limited time for such changes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 92%
OpenAI 5%
DeepSeek <1%
Meta <1%
$44,154 Vol.
$44,154 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
92%
OpenAI
5%
DeepSeek
<1%
Meta
<1%
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 92%
OpenAI 5%
DeepSeek <1%
Meta <1%
$44,154 Vol.
$44,154 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$12,169 Vol.
92%
OpenAI
$13,679 Vol.
5%
DeepSeek
$3,149 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$659 Vol.
<1%
$1,250 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$807 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$1,070 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$689 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$848 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$574 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$903 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$803 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$864 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$926 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$768 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$748 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$682 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$657 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$934 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$686 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,288 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking and related variants currently lead LiveBench mathematics with scores near 95-96% in recent snapshots, driven by strong performance on competition problems, olympiad-style tasks, and AMPS-hard questions that test genuine reasoning over pattern matching. Traders assign 91.5% implied probability to Anthropic because no other lab's frontier models, including OpenAI's o-series or GPT-5 variants, have displaced it on the live leaderboard despite rapid iteration across the sector. New LiveBench question sets released before month-end or a surprise capability jump from competitors like DeepSeek or xAI could still shift the outcome, though historical release patterns suggest limited time for such changes.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Volume
$44,154End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=MathematicsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking and related variants currently lead LiveBench mathematics with scores near 95-96% in recent snapshots, driven by strong performance on competition problems, olympiad-style tasks, and AMPS-hard questions that test genuine reasoning over pattern matching. Traders assign 91.5% implied probability to Anthropic because no other lab's frontier models, including OpenAI's o-series or GPT-5 variants, have displaced it on the live leaderboard despite rapid iteration across the sector. New LiveBench question sets released before month-end or a surprise capability jump from competitors like DeepSeek or xAI could still shift the outcome, though historical release patterns suggest limited time for such changes.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$44,154End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=MathematicsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking and related variants currently lead LiveBench mathematics with scores near 95-96% in recent snapshots, driven by strong performance on competition problems, olympiad-style tasks, and AMPS-hard questions that test genuine reasoning over pattern matching. Traders assign 91.5% implied probability to Anthropic because no other lab's frontier models, including OpenAI's o-series or GPT-5 variants, have displaced it on the live leaderboard despite rapid iteration across the sector. New LiveBench question sets released before month-end or a surprise capability jump from competitors like DeepSeek or xAI could still shift the outcome, though historical release patterns suggest limited time for such changes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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