Meta’s internal progress on its next frontier large language model, codenamed Watermelon, centers trader attention on a July 2026 town-hall update from Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang claiming benchmark parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 while still in training on roughly ten times the compute of the prior Muse Spark release. September 3 statements reaffirmed the project remains on track for a highly competitive model, following the rollout of Muse Spark 1.3 and amid Meta’s multibillion-dollar infrastructure push. No public release date or external verification has been provided, leaving resolution dependent on whether Meta ships the model under its codename or an official name by key deadlines such as late October. Upcoming developer conferences, earnings commentary, and any scaling updates on the Prometheus cluster could shift sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
13%
October 31
59%
November 30
79%
$947 Vol.
September 30
$20 Vol.
13%
October 31
$726 Vol.
59%
November 30
$201 Vol.
79%
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s internal progress on its next frontier large language model, codenamed Watermelon, centers trader attention on a July 2026 town-hall update from Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang claiming benchmark parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 while still in training on roughly ten times the compute of the prior Muse Spark release. September 3 statements reaffirmed the project remains on track for a highly competitive model, following the rollout of Muse Spark 1.3 and amid Meta’s multibillion-dollar infrastructure push. No public release date or external verification has been provided, leaving resolution dependent on whether Meta ships the model under its codename or an official name by key deadlines such as late October. Upcoming developer conferences, earnings commentary, and any scaling updates on the Prometheus cluster could shift sentiment.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$947End Date
Nov 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s internal progress on its next frontier large language model, codenamed Watermelon, centers trader attention on a July 2026 town-hall update from Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang claiming benchmark parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 while still in training on roughly ten times the compute of the prior Muse Spark release. September 3 statements reaffirmed the project remains on track for a highly competitive model, following the rollout of Muse Spark 1.3 and amid Meta’s multibillion-dollar infrastructure push. No public release date or external verification has been provided, leaving resolution dependent on whether Meta ships the model under its codename or an official name by key deadlines such as late October. Upcoming developer conferences, earnings commentary, and any scaling updates on the Prometheus cluster could shift sentiment.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$947End Date
Nov 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Meta’s internal progress on its next frontier large language model, codenamed Watermelon, centers trader attention on a July 2026 town-hall update from Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang claiming benchmark parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 while still in training on roughly ten times the compute of the prior Muse Spark release. September 3 statements reaffirmed the project remains on track for a highly competitive model, following the rollout of Muse Spark 1.3 and amid Meta’s multibillion-dollar infrastructure push. No public release date or external verification has been provided, leaving resolution dependent on whether Meta ships the model under its codename or an official name by key deadlines such as late October. Upcoming developer conferences, earnings commentary, and any scaling updates on the Prometheus cluster could shift sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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