Anthropic holds the strongest market-implied position at 63% due to its September 1 release of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1, which topped independent benchmarks such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index at 66 while delivering leading agentic coding and reasoning performance. Recent OpenAI GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.6 Sol launches scored lower on the same metrics despite aggressive AGI-era marketing, while Google’s repeated Gemini Flash variants and delayed flagship updates have left it without a clear frontier contender. xAI and Meta models show competitive value but trail on raw capability scores. With the market looking to end-2026 resolution, traders appear to price in sustained Anthropic momentum from demonstrated large language model advances over the past month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 63%
OpenAI 20%
Google 10%
xAI 3.0%
$1,100,386 Vol.
$1,100,386 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Anthropic
63%
OpenAI
20%
10%
xAI
3%
Meta
2%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Moonshot
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 63%
OpenAI 20%
Google 10%
xAI 3.0%
$1,100,386 Vol.
$1,100,386 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Anthropic
$125,575 Vol.
63%
OpenAI
$101,929 Vol.
20%
$67,685 Vol.
10%
xAI
$87,034 Vol.
3%
Meta
$69,078 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$65,048 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$68,261 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$77,977 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$79,873 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$73,284 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$51,626 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$62,689 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$59,202 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$56,925 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$54,200 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic holds the strongest market-implied position at 63% due to its September 1 release of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1, which topped independent benchmarks such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index at 66 while delivering leading agentic coding and reasoning performance. Recent OpenAI GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.6 Sol launches scored lower on the same metrics despite aggressive AGI-era marketing, while Google’s repeated Gemini Flash variants and delayed flagship updates have left it without a clear frontier contender. xAI and Meta models show competitive value but trail on raw capability scores. With the market looking to end-2026 resolution, traders appear to price in sustained Anthropic momentum from demonstrated large language model advances over the past month.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ET
Volume
$1,100,386End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic holds the strongest market-implied position at 63% due to its September 1 release of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1, which topped independent benchmarks such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index at 66 while delivering leading agentic coding and reasoning performance. Recent OpenAI GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.6 Sol launches scored lower on the same metrics despite aggressive AGI-era marketing, while Google’s repeated Gemini Flash variants and delayed flagship updates have left it without a clear frontier contender. xAI and Meta models show competitive value but trail on raw capability scores. With the market looking to end-2026 resolution, traders appear to price in sustained Anthropic momentum from demonstrated large language model advances over the past month.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$1,100,386End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds the strongest market-implied position at 63% due to its September 1 release of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1, which topped independent benchmarks such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index at 66 while delivering leading agentic coding and reasoning performance. Recent OpenAI GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.6 Sol launches scored lower on the same metrics despite aggressive AGI-era marketing, while Google’s repeated Gemini Flash variants and delayed flagship updates have left it without a clear frontier contender. xAI and Meta models show competitive value but trail on raw capability scores. With the market looking to end-2026 resolution, traders appear to price in sustained Anthropic momentum from demonstrated large language model advances over the past month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions