Anthropic’s recent Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 releases have propelled multiple variants to the top of Text Arena’s math leaderboard, with the highest scores around 1529 driven by superior chain-of-thought reasoning on competition problems. This performance edge over OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series (around 1502) and other labs has solidified trader consensus, reflected in the 80% implied probability for Anthropic versus 17.5% for OpenAI. Key factors include consistent frontier results on AIME-style and proof-based evaluations through September 2026, alongside strong agentic and multi-step capabilities that align with arena voting. Upcoming model updates or benchmark refreshes before end of October remain the main variables that could shift positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 80%
OpenAI 18%
Google 3.3%
Tencent 1.6%
$24,781 Vol.
$24,781 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
80%
OpenAI
18%
3%
Tencent
2%
Alibaba
1%
Moonshot
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Meta
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Mistral
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 80%
OpenAI 18%
Google 3.3%
Tencent 1.6%
$24,781 Vol.
$24,781 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$8,682 Vol.
80%
OpenAI
$3,564 Vol.
18%
$912 Vol.
3%
Tencent
$753 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$689 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$708 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$684 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$852 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$694 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$786 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$645 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$597 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$492 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$745 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$653 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$773 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$641 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$654 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$662 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$593 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 releases have propelled multiple variants to the top of Text Arena’s math leaderboard, with the highest scores around 1529 driven by superior chain-of-thought reasoning on competition problems. This performance edge over OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series (around 1502) and other labs has solidified trader consensus, reflected in the 80% implied probability for Anthropic versus 17.5% for OpenAI. Key factors include consistent frontier results on AIME-style and proof-based evaluations through September 2026, alongside strong agentic and multi-step capabilities that align with arena voting. Upcoming model updates or benchmark refreshes before end of October remain the main variables that could shift positioning.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Volume
$24,781End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 releases have propelled multiple variants to the top of Text Arena’s math leaderboard, with the highest scores around 1529 driven by superior chain-of-thought reasoning on competition problems. This performance edge over OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series (around 1502) and other labs has solidified trader consensus, reflected in the 80% implied probability for Anthropic versus 17.5% for OpenAI. Key factors include consistent frontier results on AIME-style and proof-based evaluations through September 2026, alongside strong agentic and multi-step capabilities that align with arena voting. Upcoming model updates or benchmark refreshes before end of October remain the main variables that could shift positioning.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$24,781End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s recent Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 releases have propelled multiple variants to the top of Text Arena’s math leaderboard, with the highest scores around 1529 driven by superior chain-of-thought reasoning on competition problems. This performance edge over OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series (around 1502) and other labs has solidified trader consensus, reflected in the 80% implied probability for Anthropic versus 17.5% for OpenAI. Key factors include consistent frontier results on AIME-style and proof-based evaluations through September 2026, alongside strong agentic and multi-step capabilities that align with arena voting. Upcoming model updates or benchmark refreshes before end of October remain the main variables that could shift positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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