Anthropic’s Claude models, particularly recent Fable and Opus variants, have established a commanding lead in LiveBench Mathematics through demonstrated high-90s category scores on the latest official releases, reflecting advances in reasoning chains and multi-step problem solving that outpace competitors. Trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability for Anthropic stems from consistent frontier positioning in verified benchmarks, where these models have topped or closely led the math column amid slower iteration from rivals. OpenAI’s GPT-5.x family and others trail at single-digit odds due to comparatively lower recent math-specific results. With resolution tied to the September 30 leaderboard snapshot, the primary risk to this positioning remains a late-month model update or inference optimization from OpenAI, Google, or DeepSeek that could shift the top math score before cutoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 93%
OpenAI 6%
Google <1%
Microsoft <1%
$44,353 Vol.
$44,353 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
93%
OpenAI
6%
1%
Microsoft
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Anthropic 93%
OpenAI 6%
Google <1%
Microsoft <1%
$44,353 Vol.
$44,353 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$12,250 Vol.
93%
OpenAI
$13,707 Vol.
6%
$1,300 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$1,321 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$3,155 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$659 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$807 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$1,070 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$689 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$848 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$574 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$903 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$803 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$864 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$926 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$768 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$748 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$682 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$657 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$934 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$686 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic’s Claude models, particularly recent Fable and Opus variants, have established a commanding lead in LiveBench Mathematics through demonstrated high-90s category scores on the latest official releases, reflecting advances in reasoning chains and multi-step problem solving that outpace competitors. Trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability for Anthropic stems from consistent frontier positioning in verified benchmarks, where these models have topped or closely led the math column amid slower iteration from rivals. OpenAI’s GPT-5.x family and others trail at single-digit odds due to comparatively lower recent math-specific results. With resolution tied to the September 30 leaderboard snapshot, the primary risk to this positioning remains a late-month model update or inference optimization from OpenAI, Google, or DeepSeek that could shift the top math score before cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Volume
$44,353End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=MathematicsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic’s Claude models, particularly recent Fable and Opus variants, have established a commanding lead in LiveBench Mathematics through demonstrated high-90s category scores on the latest official releases, reflecting advances in reasoning chains and multi-step problem solving that outpace competitors. Trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability for Anthropic stems from consistent frontier positioning in verified benchmarks, where these models have topped or closely led the math column amid slower iteration from rivals. OpenAI’s GPT-5.x family and others trail at single-digit odds due to comparatively lower recent math-specific results. With resolution tied to the September 30 leaderboard snapshot, the primary risk to this positioning remains a late-month model update or inference optimization from OpenAI, Google, or DeepSeek that could shift the top math score before cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$44,353End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=MathematicsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s Claude models, particularly recent Fable and Opus variants, have established a commanding lead in LiveBench Mathematics through demonstrated high-90s category scores on the latest official releases, reflecting advances in reasoning chains and multi-step problem solving that outpace competitors. Trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability for Anthropic stems from consistent frontier positioning in verified benchmarks, where these models have topped or closely led the math column amid slower iteration from rivals. OpenAI’s GPT-5.x family and others trail at single-digit odds due to comparatively lower recent math-specific results. With resolution tied to the September 30 leaderboard snapshot, the primary risk to this positioning remains a late-month model update or inference optimization from OpenAI, Google, or DeepSeek that could shift the top math score before cutoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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