Robust U.S. economic expansion underpins the 69.5% market-implied probability that no recession occurs by end-2027. As of September 2026, consensus forecasts project real GDP growth of 2.0–2.3% for 2026 and near 2.1% in 2027, supported by resilient consumer spending, AI-related capital investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.5% and nonfarm payroll gains averaging over 100,000 monthly. Dynamic-factor models place near-term recession risk below 10%, while the New York Fed’s probability stands around 16% for mid-2027. Elevated headline inflation near 3.4–4% from energy prices has kept the Fed on hold at the 3.50–3.75% funds rate range, but absent sharper labor-market deterioration or sustained supply shocks, traders price continued expansion through the period. Key upcoming catalysts include September employment and CPI releases plus FOMC communications on the policy path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated31% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2027
31% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productRobust U.S. economic expansion underpins the 69.5% market-implied probability that no recession occurs by end-2027. As of September 2026, consensus forecasts project real GDP growth of 2.0–2.3% for 2026 and near 2.1% in 2027, supported by resilient consumer spending, AI-related capital investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.5% and nonfarm payroll gains averaging over 100,000 monthly. Dynamic-factor models place near-term recession risk below 10%, while the New York Fed’s probability stands around 16% for mid-2027. Elevated headline inflation near 3.4–4% from energy prices has kept the Fed on hold at the 3.50–3.75% funds rate range, but absent sharper labor-market deterioration or sustained supply shocks, traders price continued expansion through the period. Key upcoming catalysts include September employment and CPI releases plus FOMC communications on the policy path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 3:43 PM ET
Volume
$7,143End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 3:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productRobust U.S. economic expansion underpins the 69.5% market-implied probability that no recession occurs by end-2027. As of September 2026, consensus forecasts project real GDP growth of 2.0–2.3% for 2026 and near 2.1% in 2027, supported by resilient consumer spending, AI-related capital investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.5% and nonfarm payroll gains averaging over 100,000 monthly. Dynamic-factor models place near-term recession risk below 10%, while the New York Fed’s probability stands around 16% for mid-2027. Elevated headline inflation near 3.4–4% from energy prices has kept the Fed on hold at the 3.50–3.75% funds rate range, but absent sharper labor-market deterioration or sustained supply shocks, traders price continued expansion through the period. Key upcoming catalysts include September employment and CPI releases plus FOMC communications on the policy path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Volume
$7,143End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 3:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Robust U.S. economic expansion underpins the 69.5% market-implied probability that no recession occurs by end-2027. As of September 2026, consensus forecasts project real GDP growth of 2.0–2.3% for 2026 and near 2.1% in 2027, supported by resilient consumer spending, AI-related capital investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.5% and nonfarm payroll gains averaging over 100,000 monthly. Dynamic-factor models place near-term recession risk below 10%, while the New York Fed’s probability stands around 16% for mid-2027. Elevated headline inflation near 3.4–4% from energy prices has kept the Fed on hold at the 3.50–3.75% funds rate range, but absent sharper labor-market deterioration or sustained supply shocks, traders price continued expansion through the period. Key upcoming catalysts include September employment and CPI releases plus FOMC communications on the policy path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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