**US administration opposition to any fees or tolls on the Strait of Hormuz, an international waterway governed by UNCLOS free-passage principles, keeps trader-implied odds for US collection of payments by year-end extremely low.** Following the June 2026 US-Iran ceasefire memorandum that included a 60-day toll-free window, Washington rejected Iranian and Omani proposals for service fees or administration charges. In mid-July, President Trump briefly floated the US acting as “Guardian” with a 20% cargo reimbursement for security before pivoting to Gulf investment arrangements. US officials, including Secretary Rubio, have reiterated that no country may monetize transit, citing existing international law and pre-conflict norms. Absent any announced US fee mechanism, legislative action, or confirmed collections since the proposal reversal, markets reflect the absence of policy momentum or legal pathway for implementation by December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS charges Hormuz fees by...?
US charges Hormuz fees by...?
$972,755 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
4%
$972,755 Vol.
December 31
$104,451 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.**US administration opposition to any fees or tolls on the Strait of Hormuz, an international waterway governed by UNCLOS free-passage principles, keeps trader-implied odds for US collection of payments by year-end extremely low.**
Following the June 2026 US-Iran ceasefire memorandum that included a 60-day toll-free window, Washington rejected Iranian and Omani proposals for service fees or administration charges. In mid-July, President Trump briefly floated the US acting as “Guardian” with a 20% cargo reimbursement for security before pivoting to Gulf investment arrangements. US officials, including Secretary Rubio, have reiterated that no country may monetize transit, citing existing international law and pre-conflict norms. Absent any announced US fee mechanism, legislative action, or confirmed collections since the proposal reversal, markets reflect the absence of policy momentum or legal pathway for implementation by December 31.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ET
Volume
$972,755End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.**US administration opposition to any fees or tolls on the Strait of Hormuz, an international waterway governed by UNCLOS free-passage principles, keeps trader-implied odds for US collection of payments by year-end extremely low.**
Following the June 2026 US-Iran ceasefire memorandum that included a 60-day toll-free window, Washington rejected Iranian and Omani proposals for service fees or administration charges. In mid-July, President Trump briefly floated the US acting as “Guardian” with a 20% cargo reimbursement for security before pivoting to Gulf investment arrangements. US officials, including Secretary Rubio, have reiterated that no country may monetize transit, citing existing international law and pre-conflict norms. Absent any announced US fee mechanism, legislative action, or confirmed collections since the proposal reversal, markets reflect the absence of policy momentum or legal pathway for implementation by December 31.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$972,755End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**US administration opposition to any fees or tolls on the Strait of Hormuz, an international waterway governed by UNCLOS free-passage principles, keeps trader-implied odds for US collection of payments by year-end extremely low.** Following the June 2026 US-Iran ceasefire memorandum that included a 60-day toll-free window, Washington rejected Iranian and Omani proposals for service fees or administration charges. In mid-July, President Trump briefly floated the US acting as “Guardian” with a 20% cargo reimbursement for security before pivoting to Gulf investment arrangements. US officials, including Secretary Rubio, have reiterated that no country may monetize transit, citing existing international law and pre-conflict norms. Absent any announced US fee mechanism, legislative action, or confirmed collections since the proposal reversal, markets reflect the absence of policy momentum or legal pathway for implementation by December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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