U.S. X Iran predictions & odds

Geopolitics·Iran

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

$26M Vol.

$353K today

$847K Liq.

547

Ends in 4 months

59%

December 31

$26M Vol.

$353K today

$847K Liq.

547

Ends in 4 months

Politics·Trump

Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by...?

$5.1K Vol.

$855 Liq.

Ends in 25 days

29%

September 30

$5.1K Vol.

$855 Liq.

Ends in 25 days

Geopolitics·Iran

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

$65M Vol.

$84.9K today

$721K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

15%

$65M Vol.

$84.9K today

$721K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Geopolitics·Iran

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

$26M Vol.

$68.1K today

$595K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

$26M Vol.

$68.1K today

$595K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Geopolitics·Iran

Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by...?

$626K Vol.

$14.9K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

December 31

$626K Vol.

$14.9K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Geopolitics·Iran

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

$6M Vol.

$977K Liq.

Ends in 25 days

92%

No Meeting by September 30

$6M Vol.

$977K Liq.

Ends in 25 days

Geopolitics·Iran

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

$11M Vol.

$317K Liq.

Ends in 7 months

57%

March 31, 2027

$11M Vol.

$317K Liq.

Ends in 7 months

Geopolitics·Ayatollah

Trump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by...?

$188K Vol.

$55.0K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

December 31

$188K Vol.

$55.0K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Geopolitics·Iran

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

$18M Vol.

$158K Liq.

218

Ends in 4 months

December 31

$18M Vol.

$158K Liq.

218

Ends in 4 months

Geopolitics·Iran

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

$29M Vol.

$184K Liq.

194

Ends in 4 months

December 31

$29M Vol.

$184K Liq.

194

Ends in 4 months

Geopolitics·Iran

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

$635K Vol.

$40.7K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

$635K Vol.

$40.7K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Geopolitics·Iran

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

$387K Vol.

$295K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

32%

Steve Witkoff

$387K Vol.

$295K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Geopolitics·Iran

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

$1M Vol.

$80.6K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

33%

October 31

$1M Vol.

$80.6K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Geopolitics·Iran

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?

$78.0K Vol.

$36.7K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

$78.0K Vol.

$36.7K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Geopolitics·Iran

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

$8M Vol.

$94.2K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

December 31

$8M Vol.

$94.2K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Politics·Hegseth

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

$413K Vol.

$35.0K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

21%

$413K Vol.

$35.0K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Geopolitics·Iran

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30?

$20.3K Vol.

$58.5K Liq.

Ends in 25 days

63%

10+

$20.3K Vol.

$58.5K Liq.

Ends in 25 days

Finance·Oil

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by September 25?

$37.3K Vol.

$31.7K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

83%

280M

$37.3K Vol.

$31.7K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Geopolitics·Iran

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

$1M Vol.

$59.6K Liq.

Ends in 25 days

September 30

$1M Vol.

$59.6K Liq.

Ends in 25 days

Geopolitics·Iran

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?

$172K Vol.

$89.0K Liq.

30+

$172K Vol.

$89.0K Liq.

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Event Status

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like U.S. X Iran.

Polymarket currently hosts 500 active markets for U.S. X Iran that lets you track or trade on predictions like “US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $192.9M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 86% chance to No. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on U.S. X Iran predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.

Polymarket is accurate more than 94% of the time an entire month before an outcome is definitively known. Prediction markets aggregate wisdom from informed users, often outperforming experts. For more context, view these stats on Polymarket’s accuracy.

Yes. You can treat this page as a live data source and watch how the odds for U.S. X Iran shift in real-time. It’s a free way to track market sentiment on major outcomes like “US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?” without ever needing to place a trade.

Sign up and fund your account with crypto, credit/debit card, or bank transfer. Browse the U.S. X Iran prediction markets, and when you’re ready you can buy shares in your picks.

Market resolution relies on trusted or official data sources. For complete clarity, you can check the “Rules” section on any individual market page like “US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?,” to see the exact criteria and sources used to determine the winner.

Frequently Asked Questions

Sign up and fund your account with crypto, credit/debit card, or bank transfer. Browse the U.S. X Iran prediction markets, and when you’re ready you can buy shares in your picks.

U.S. X Iran predictions & odds

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is Polymarket?

What types of U.S. X Iran prediction markets can I trade on Polymarket?

How do U.S. X Iran markets work on Polymarket?

What is the current top U.S. X Iran prediction?

Why use Polymarket for U.S. X Iran predictions?

How accurate are Polymarket’s U.S. X Iran odds?

Can I track U.S. X Iran predictions without trading?

How do I get started with U.S. X Iran markets on Polymarket?

How are markets resolved?

U.S. X Iran predictions & odds