**Traders assign a 94.5% probability to “No” on a Trump-Putin-Zelensky trilateral meeting before 2027 because bilateral and U.S.-mediated channels remain the dominant format, with core positions still far apart.** U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Putin in Moscow in early September 2026 to convey a fresh proposal and then traveled to Kyiv for talks with Zelensky, focusing on limited pauses in strikes on the capitals rather than a broader ceasefire or leader-level summit. Russia continues to insist on territorial concessions in Donbas, limits on Ukrainian forces, and no NATO path, while Ukraine prioritizes security guarantees; these gaps have stalled prior rounds, including post-Alaska 2025 efforts. Zelensky has repeatedly proposed direct or multilateral meetings that Moscow has conditioned or rejected, and recent diplomacy has emphasized separate U.S. calls plus envoy shuttling over a three-way leaders’ gathering. With roughly four months remaining and no scheduled venue or breakthrough announced, the consensus reflects the slow pace of substantive progress and procedural barriers typical of such high-stakes negotiations.