The Kremlin’s August 20 statement that arranging a meeting with Vladimir Putin falls outside official responsibilities and is not under consideration forms the primary driver of the 96.2% “No” probability. Ye’s planned October 10–11 concerts in St. Petersburg encountered immediate venue withdrawal after Gazprom Arena confirmed no signed rental agreement, amid domestic complaints and calls for the rapper to demonstrate support for Russian positions. While some State Duma members noted a hypothetical encounter could occur if schedules aligned, the presidential administration has shown no interest in scheduling one. Ye’s history of polarizing statements and limited access for Western artists since 2022 further reduce the likelihood of any in-person interaction before the October 31 resolution date. A last-minute private arrangement remains theoretically possible but faces significant logistical and political barriers.