Recent early-September 2026 global temperature data and ensemble forecasts position the month on track to set a new record high, with a projected mean near 16.45 °C that would exceed September 2023’s 16.38 °C benchmark by roughly 0.07–0.08 °C. A developing strong El Niño, already pushing extra-tropical ocean surfaces to record levels, combines with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend to elevate the anomaly to around +1.01 °C. These factors underpin the market’s heavy weighting toward first- or second-hottest outcomes, though model spread and the remaining three weeks introduce residual uncertainty around final ranking. Updated forecasts from agencies such as ECMWF and NOAA will further refine probabilities as the month progresses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSeptember 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
2nd hottest 53%
1st hottest 42%
3rd hottest 19%
4th or lower 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
1st hottest
42%
2nd hottest
53%
3rd hottest
19%
4th or lower
19%
2nd hottest 53%
1st hottest 42%
3rd hottest 19%
4th or lower 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
1st hottest
$289 Vol.
42%
2nd hottest
$1 Vol.
53%
3rd hottest
$190 Vol.
19%
4th or lower
$250 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent early-September 2026 global temperature data and ensemble forecasts position the month on track to set a new record high, with a projected mean near 16.45 °C that would exceed September 2023’s 16.38 °C benchmark by roughly 0.07–0.08 °C. A developing strong El Niño, already pushing extra-tropical ocean surfaces to record levels, combines with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend to elevate the anomaly to around +1.01 °C. These factors underpin the market’s heavy weighting toward first- or second-hottest outcomes, though model spread and the remaining three weeks introduce residual uncertainty around final ranking. Updated forecasts from agencies such as ECMWF and NOAA will further refine probabilities as the month progresses.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
Volume
$730End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent early-September 2026 global temperature data and ensemble forecasts position the month on track to set a new record high, with a projected mean near 16.45 °C that would exceed September 2023’s 16.38 °C benchmark by roughly 0.07–0.08 °C. A developing strong El Niño, already pushing extra-tropical ocean surfaces to record levels, combines with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend to elevate the anomaly to around +1.01 °C. These factors underpin the market’s heavy weighting toward first- or second-hottest outcomes, though model spread and the remaining three weeks introduce residual uncertainty around final ranking. Updated forecasts from agencies such as ECMWF and NOAA will further refine probabilities as the month progresses.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$730End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent early-September 2026 global temperature data and ensemble forecasts position the month on track to set a new record high, with a projected mean near 16.45 °C that would exceed September 2023’s 16.38 °C benchmark by roughly 0.07–0.08 °C. A developing strong El Niño, already pushing extra-tropical ocean surfaces to record levels, combines with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend to elevate the anomaly to around +1.01 °C. These factors underpin the market’s heavy weighting toward first- or second-hottest outcomes, though model spread and the remaining three weeks introduce residual uncertainty around final ranking. Updated forecasts from agencies such as ECMWF and NOAA will further refine probabilities as the month progresses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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