**Trader consensus favors below-normal September rainfall totals in Hong Kong, with the <275 mm bin leading at 40% implied probability and outcomes under 300 mm exceeding 55%.** The 1991–2020 climatological normal stands at 321 mm, driven mainly by tropical cyclone passages and monsoon trough activity during peak season. Early September 2026 observations show limited rainfall accumulation amid easterly flow and weak disturbances, with no significant systems positioned to deliver heavy precipitation in the near term. Model guidance indicates continued subdued activity through mid-month, though late-September typhoon tracks remain the key uncertainty that could shift totals higher if a system organizes in the northern South China Sea or western North Pacific and steers westward. Resolution hinges on official Hong Kong Observatory totals through month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPrecipitation in Hong Kong in September?
Precipitation in Hong Kong in September?
<275mm 56%
275-300mm 16%
300-325mm 10.0%
325-350mm 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<275mm
41%
275-300mm
16%
300-325mm
10%
325-350mm
10%
350-375mm
5%
375-400mm
5%
400-450mm
5%
450-500mm
1%
500-550mm
4%
550mm+
6%
<275mm 56%
275-300mm 16%
300-325mm 10.0%
325-350mm 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<275mm
$7,116 Vol.
41%
275-300mm
$283 Vol.
16%
300-325mm
$185 Vol.
10%
325-350mm
$206 Vol.
10%
350-375mm
$195 Vol.
5%
375-400mm
$194 Vol.
5%
400-450mm
$210 Vol.
5%
450-500mm
$235 Vol.
1%
500-550mm
$206 Vol.
4%
550mm+
$223 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus favors below-normal September rainfall totals in Hong Kong, with the <275 mm bin leading at 40% implied probability and outcomes under 300 mm exceeding 55%.** The 1991–2020 climatological normal stands at 321 mm, driven mainly by tropical cyclone passages and monsoon trough activity during peak season. Early September 2026 observations show limited rainfall accumulation amid easterly flow and weak disturbances, with no significant systems positioned to deliver heavy precipitation in the near term. Model guidance indicates continued subdued activity through mid-month, though late-September typhoon tracks remain the key uncertainty that could shift totals higher if a system organizes in the northern South China Sea or western North Pacific and steers westward. Resolution hinges on official Hong Kong Observatory totals through month-end.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ET
Volume
$9,051End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus favors below-normal September rainfall totals in Hong Kong, with the <275 mm bin leading at 40% implied probability and outcomes under 300 mm exceeding 55%.** The 1991–2020 climatological normal stands at 321 mm, driven mainly by tropical cyclone passages and monsoon trough activity during peak season. Early September 2026 observations show limited rainfall accumulation amid easterly flow and weak disturbances, with no significant systems positioned to deliver heavy precipitation in the near term. Model guidance indicates continued subdued activity through mid-month, though late-September typhoon tracks remain the key uncertainty that could shift totals higher if a system organizes in the northern South China Sea or western North Pacific and steers westward. Resolution hinges on official Hong Kong Observatory totals through month-end.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$9,051End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus favors below-normal September rainfall totals in Hong Kong, with the <275 mm bin leading at 40% implied probability and outcomes under 300 mm exceeding 55%.** The 1991–2020 climatological normal stands at 321 mm, driven mainly by tropical cyclone passages and monsoon trough activity during peak season. Early September 2026 observations show limited rainfall accumulation amid easterly flow and weak disturbances, with no significant systems positioned to deliver heavy precipitation in the near term. Model guidance indicates continued subdued activity through mid-month, though late-September typhoon tracks remain the key uncertainty that could shift totals higher if a system organizes in the northern South China Sea or western North Pacific and steers westward. Resolution hinges on official Hong Kong Observatory totals through month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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