OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and CEO Sam Altman’s insistence on at least a $1 trillion valuation have anchored trader sentiment around a premium debut, with the 66.3% implied probability on a $1.5 trillion-plus closing market cap reflecting expectations of continued revenue momentum and AI demand outpacing its March 2026 $852 billion private round. Secondary trading and tender activity into late August have held valuations near that level amid roughly $24 billion annualized revenue, while advisers’ warnings of 2026 market volatility have shifted focus toward a potential 2027 listing. The modest 10.8% odds on no IPO by end-2027 underscore the company’s optionality as a private entity for compute deals, though any near-term economic data or tech-sector rotation could pressure multiples ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1.5T+ 66.5%
1.25T–1.5T 12%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 10.8%
1T–1.25T 7.8%
$211,782 Vol.
$211,782 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
<1%
500–750B
1%
750B–1T
5%
1T–1.25T
8%
1.25T–1.5T
12%
1.5T+
66%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
11%
1.5T+ 66.5%
1.25T–1.5T 12%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 10.8%
1T–1.25T 7.8%
$211,782 Vol.
$211,782 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
$16,923 Vol.
<1%
500–750B
$18,613 Vol.
1%
750B–1T
$45,097 Vol.
5%
1T–1.25T
$24,130 Vol.
8%
1.25T–1.5T
$16,894 Vol.
12%
1.5T+
$48,143 Vol.
66%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$41,983 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and CEO Sam Altman’s insistence on at least a $1 trillion valuation have anchored trader sentiment around a premium debut, with the 66.3% implied probability on a $1.5 trillion-plus closing market cap reflecting expectations of continued revenue momentum and AI demand outpacing its March 2026 $852 billion private round. Secondary trading and tender activity into late August have held valuations near that level amid roughly $24 billion annualized revenue, while advisers’ warnings of 2026 market volatility have shifted focus toward a potential 2027 listing. The modest 10.8% odds on no IPO by end-2027 underscore the company’s optionality as a private entity for compute deals, though any near-term economic data or tech-sector rotation could pressure multiples ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$211,782End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and CEO Sam Altman’s insistence on at least a $1 trillion valuation have anchored trader sentiment around a premium debut, with the 66.3% implied probability on a $1.5 trillion-plus closing market cap reflecting expectations of continued revenue momentum and AI demand outpacing its March 2026 $852 billion private round. Secondary trading and tender activity into late August have held valuations near that level amid roughly $24 billion annualized revenue, while advisers’ warnings of 2026 market volatility have shifted focus toward a potential 2027 listing. The modest 10.8% odds on no IPO by end-2027 underscore the company’s optionality as a private entity for compute deals, though any near-term economic data or tech-sector rotation could pressure multiples ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$211,782End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and CEO Sam Altman’s insistence on at least a $1 trillion valuation have anchored trader sentiment around a premium debut, with the 66.3% implied probability on a $1.5 trillion-plus closing market cap reflecting expectations of continued revenue momentum and AI demand outpacing its March 2026 $852 billion private round. Secondary trading and tender activity into late August have held valuations near that level amid roughly $24 billion annualized revenue, while advisers’ warnings of 2026 market volatility have shifted focus toward a potential 2027 listing. The modest 10.8% odds on no IPO by end-2027 underscore the company’s optionality as a private entity for compute deals, though any near-term economic data or tech-sector rotation could pressure multiples ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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