Recent revenue acceleration to a $7 billion-plus annualized run rate with 80% year-over-year growth has driven Databricks’ private valuation to $190 billion following its August 2026 funding round, establishing a strong benchmark ahead of a potential IPO. With CEO commentary ruling out a 2026 listing amid a crowded queue including OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX, trader focus centers on 2027 timing and how public-market multiples—comparable to Snowflake’s roughly 23 times revenue—will translate the AI infrastructure premium into an opening market cap. Closely matched probabilities across $150 billion to $450 billion+ buckets reflect uncertainty over exact debut pricing, dilution, and broader tech sentiment, while the 23% odds on no IPO by end-2027 underscore execution and macro risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$250B-$300B 97%
$350B-$400B 97%
$200B-$250B 95%
$300B-$350B 95%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2027
<$150B
-
$150B-$200B
-
$200B-$250B
95%
$250B-$300B
97%
$300B-$350B
95%
$350B-$400B
97%
$400B-$450B
-
$450B+
-
No IPO by December 31, 2027
23%
$250B-$300B 97%
$350B-$400B 97%
$200B-$250B 95%
$300B-$350B 95%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2027
<$150B
$18 Vol.
-
$150B-$200B
$18 Vol.
-
$200B-$250B
$18 Vol.
95%
$250B-$300B
$18 Vol.
97%
$300B-$350B
$18 Vol.
95%
$350B-$400B
$18 Vol.
97%
$400B-$450B
$18 Vol.
-
$450B+
$18 Vol.
-
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$272 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve based on Databricks's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Recent revenue acceleration to a $7 billion-plus annualized run rate with 80% year-over-year growth has driven Databricks’ private valuation to $190 billion following its August 2026 funding round, establishing a strong benchmark ahead of a potential IPO. With CEO commentary ruling out a 2026 listing amid a crowded queue including OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX, trader focus centers on 2027 timing and how public-market multiples—comparable to Snowflake’s roughly 23 times revenue—will translate the AI infrastructure premium into an opening market cap. Closely matched probabilities across $150 billion to $450 billion+ buckets reflect uncertainty over exact debut pricing, dilution, and broader tech sentiment, while the 23% odds on no IPO by end-2027 underscore execution and macro risks.
This market will resolve based on Databricks's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 10:07 PM ET
Volume
$416End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 10:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on Databricks's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Recent revenue acceleration to a $7 billion-plus annualized run rate with 80% year-over-year growth has driven Databricks’ private valuation to $190 billion following its August 2026 funding round, establishing a strong benchmark ahead of a potential IPO. With CEO commentary ruling out a 2026 listing amid a crowded queue including OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX, trader focus centers on 2027 timing and how public-market multiples—comparable to Snowflake’s roughly 23 times revenue—will translate the AI infrastructure premium into an opening market cap. Closely matched probabilities across $150 billion to $450 billion+ buckets reflect uncertainty over exact debut pricing, dilution, and broader tech sentiment, while the 23% odds on no IPO by end-2027 underscore execution and macro risks.
This market will resolve based on Databricks's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Volume
$416End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 10:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent revenue acceleration to a $7 billion-plus annualized run rate with 80% year-over-year growth has driven Databricks’ private valuation to $190 billion following its August 2026 funding round, establishing a strong benchmark ahead of a potential IPO. With CEO commentary ruling out a 2026 listing amid a crowded queue including OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX, trader focus centers on 2027 timing and how public-market multiples—comparable to Snowflake’s roughly 23 times revenue—will translate the AI infrastructure premium into an opening market cap. Closely matched probabilities across $150 billion to $450 billion+ buckets reflect uncertainty over exact debut pricing, dilution, and broader tech sentiment, while the 23% odds on no IPO by end-2027 underscore execution and macro risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions