Anthropic's confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and active preparations for an October Nasdaq listing, including a late-September prospectus and mid-October marketing push, have driven the 96.7% market-implied probability that it will IPO ahead of OpenAI. Recent reports highlight Anthropic's progress toward a potential $2 trillion valuation, supported by a $965 billion private round and a $15 billion credit facility, while OpenAI has shifted toward a 2027 timeline to pursue a $1 trillion+ valuation amid market volatility and internal preferences for extended private operations. This timeline gap reflects Anthropic's faster execution in the competitive large language model sector. Realistic risks that could alter the outcome include further regulatory scrutiny of AI companies, delays from SEC reviews or financing finalization, or an unexpected acceleration in OpenAI's process.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic
97% chance
$337,231 Vol.
$337,231 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
Anthropic
97% chance
$337,231 Vol.
$337,231 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic's confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and active preparations for an October Nasdaq listing, including a late-September prospectus and mid-October marketing push, have driven the 96.7% market-implied probability that it will IPO ahead of OpenAI. Recent reports highlight Anthropic's progress toward a potential $2 trillion valuation, supported by a $965 billion private round and a $15 billion credit facility, while OpenAI has shifted toward a 2027 timeline to pursue a $1 trillion+ valuation amid market volatility and internal preferences for extended private operations. This timeline gap reflects Anthropic's faster execution in the competitive large language model sector. Realistic risks that could alter the outcome include further regulatory scrutiny of AI companies, delays from SEC reviews or financing finalization, or an unexpected acceleration in OpenAI's process.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volume
$337,231End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic's confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and active preparations for an October Nasdaq listing, including a late-September prospectus and mid-October marketing push, have driven the 96.7% market-implied probability that it will IPO ahead of OpenAI. Recent reports highlight Anthropic's progress toward a potential $2 trillion valuation, supported by a $965 billion private round and a $15 billion credit facility, while OpenAI has shifted toward a 2027 timeline to pursue a $1 trillion+ valuation amid market volatility and internal preferences for extended private operations. This timeline gap reflects Anthropic's faster execution in the competitive large language model sector. Realistic risks that could alter the outcome include further regulatory scrutiny of AI companies, delays from SEC reviews or financing finalization, or an unexpected acceleration in OpenAI's process.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$337,231End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic's confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and active preparations for an October Nasdaq listing, including a late-September prospectus and mid-October marketing push, have driven the 96.7% market-implied probability that it will IPO ahead of OpenAI. Recent reports highlight Anthropic's progress toward a potential $2 trillion valuation, supported by a $965 billion private round and a $15 billion credit facility, while OpenAI has shifted toward a 2027 timeline to pursue a $1 trillion+ valuation amid market volatility and internal preferences for extended private operations. This timeline gap reflects Anthropic's faster execution in the competitive large language model sector. Realistic risks that could alter the outcome include further regulatory scrutiny of AI companies, delays from SEC reviews or financing finalization, or an unexpected acceleration in OpenAI's process.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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