Discord’s confidential SEC filing in January 2026 without a subsequent public S-1 has shifted the base case for an IPO into 2027, elevating the 35.7% market-implied probability of no listing by December 31, 2027. Secondary-market indications from Forge Global have stabilized near $8.5 billion as of mid-2026, reflecting a 43% compression from the 2021 $15 billion peak amid softer multiples for consumer platforms relative to AI-driven listings. With roughly 200 million monthly active users and $600–900 million in annualized Nitro subscription revenue, the 11–14 billion and 8–11 billion brackets lead among IPO outcomes at 23.6% and 14.5% implied probabilities, respectively. Key near-term catalysts include any public S-1 release and broader IPO market sentiment for non-AI consumer names.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo IPO by December 31, 2027 40.6%
11–14B 23.6%
8–11B 15%
14–17B 7.3%
$53,627 Vol.
$53,627 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<5B
5%
5–8B
5%
8–11B
15%
11–14B
24%
14–17B
7%
17–20B
6%
20B+
5%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
41%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 40.6%
11–14B 23.6%
8–11B 15%
14–17B 7.3%
$53,627 Vol.
$53,627 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<5B
$14,628 Vol.
5%
5–8B
$4,270 Vol.
5%
8–11B
$12,643 Vol.
15%
11–14B
$5,510 Vol.
24%
14–17B
$2,091 Vol.
7%
17–20B
$4,486 Vol.
6%
20B+
$4,404 Vol.
5%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$5,593 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Discord’s confidential SEC filing in January 2026 without a subsequent public S-1 has shifted the base case for an IPO into 2027, elevating the 35.7% market-implied probability of no listing by December 31, 2027. Secondary-market indications from Forge Global have stabilized near $8.5 billion as of mid-2026, reflecting a 43% compression from the 2021 $15 billion peak amid softer multiples for consumer platforms relative to AI-driven listings. With roughly 200 million monthly active users and $600–900 million in annualized Nitro subscription revenue, the 11–14 billion and 8–11 billion brackets lead among IPO outcomes at 23.6% and 14.5% implied probabilities, respectively. Key near-term catalysts include any public S-1 release and broader IPO market sentiment for non-AI consumer names.
This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Jun 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
Volume
$53,627End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Discord’s confidential SEC filing in January 2026 without a subsequent public S-1 has shifted the base case for an IPO into 2027, elevating the 35.7% market-implied probability of no listing by December 31, 2027. Secondary-market indications from Forge Global have stabilized near $8.5 billion as of mid-2026, reflecting a 43% compression from the 2021 $15 billion peak amid softer multiples for consumer platforms relative to AI-driven listings. With roughly 200 million monthly active users and $600–900 million in annualized Nitro subscription revenue, the 11–14 billion and 8–11 billion brackets lead among IPO outcomes at 23.6% and 14.5% implied probabilities, respectively. Key near-term catalysts include any public S-1 release and broader IPO market sentiment for non-AI consumer names.
This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Volume
$53,627End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Discord’s confidential SEC filing in January 2026 without a subsequent public S-1 has shifted the base case for an IPO into 2027, elevating the 35.7% market-implied probability of no listing by December 31, 2027. Secondary-market indications from Forge Global have stabilized near $8.5 billion as of mid-2026, reflecting a 43% compression from the 2021 $15 billion peak amid softer multiples for consumer platforms relative to AI-driven listings. With roughly 200 million monthly active users and $600–900 million in annualized Nitro subscription revenue, the 11–14 billion and 8–11 billion brackets lead among IPO outcomes at 23.6% and 14.5% implied probabilities, respectively. Key near-term catalysts include any public S-1 release and broader IPO market sentiment for non-AI consumer names.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions