Strong revenue growth and profitability at Stripe, with 2025 payment volume reaching $1.9 trillion and net revenue estimates around $6-6.8 billion, underpin trader sentiment, yet the company's self-funding model and co-founders' repeated statements that an IPO is not a near-term priority create balanced probabilities across market-cap buckets. The February 2026 tender at $159 billion sets a clear private-market benchmark, while secondary trading implies values nearer $175-200 billion, leaving room for IPO premiums or discounts depending on timing and broader equity conditions such as Treasury yields and fintech multiples. Multiple outcomes clustered near 37-41% reflect uncertainty over whether a 2027 listing occurs and at what scale, with the 27% probability of no IPO by December 31, 2027, highlighting the impact of potential M&A like the PayPal pursuit and ongoing tender liquidity. Key catalysts include any confidential S-1 filing or shifts in employee equity pressure ahead of year-end 2027 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$250B-$300B 69%
$350B-$400B 41%
$500B+ 40%
<$150B 40%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2027
<$150B
40%
$150B-$200B
39%
$200B-$250B
10%
$250B-$300B
69%
$300B-$350B
-
$350B-$400B
41%
$400B-$450B
38%
$450B-$500B
35%
$500B+
40%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
27%
$250B-$300B 69%
$350B-$400B 41%
$500B+ 40%
<$150B 40%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2027
<$150B
$50 Vol.
40%
$150B-$200B
$69 Vol.
39%
$200B-$250B
$70 Vol.
10%
$250B-$300B
$94 Vol.
69%
$300B-$350B
$94 Vol.
-
$350B-$400B
$81 Vol.
41%
$400B-$450B
$120 Vol.
38%
$450B-$500B
$73 Vol.
35%
$500B+
$47 Vol.
40%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$76 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve based on Stripe's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Strong revenue growth and profitability at Stripe, with 2025 payment volume reaching $1.9 trillion and net revenue estimates around $6-6.8 billion, underpin trader sentiment, yet the company's self-funding model and co-founders' repeated statements that an IPO is not a near-term priority create balanced probabilities across market-cap buckets. The February 2026 tender at $159 billion sets a clear private-market benchmark, while secondary trading implies values nearer $175-200 billion, leaving room for IPO premiums or discounts depending on timing and broader equity conditions such as Treasury yields and fintech multiples. Multiple outcomes clustered near 37-41% reflect uncertainty over whether a 2027 listing occurs and at what scale, with the 27% probability of no IPO by December 31, 2027, highlighting the impact of potential M&A like the PayPal pursuit and ongoing tender liquidity. Key catalysts include any confidential S-1 filing or shifts in employee equity pressure ahead of year-end 2027 resolution.
This market will resolve based on Stripe's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
Volume
$774End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on Stripe's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Strong revenue growth and profitability at Stripe, with 2025 payment volume reaching $1.9 trillion and net revenue estimates around $6-6.8 billion, underpin trader sentiment, yet the company's self-funding model and co-founders' repeated statements that an IPO is not a near-term priority create balanced probabilities across market-cap buckets. The February 2026 tender at $159 billion sets a clear private-market benchmark, while secondary trading implies values nearer $175-200 billion, leaving room for IPO premiums or discounts depending on timing and broader equity conditions such as Treasury yields and fintech multiples. Multiple outcomes clustered near 37-41% reflect uncertainty over whether a 2027 listing occurs and at what scale, with the 27% probability of no IPO by December 31, 2027, highlighting the impact of potential M&A like the PayPal pursuit and ongoing tender liquidity. Key catalysts include any confidential S-1 filing or shifts in employee equity pressure ahead of year-end 2027 resolution.
This market will resolve based on Stripe's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Volume
$774End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong revenue growth and profitability at Stripe, with 2025 payment volume reaching $1.9 trillion and net revenue estimates around $6-6.8 billion, underpin trader sentiment, yet the company's self-funding model and co-founders' repeated statements that an IPO is not a near-term priority create balanced probabilities across market-cap buckets. The February 2026 tender at $159 billion sets a clear private-market benchmark, while secondary trading implies values nearer $175-200 billion, leaving room for IPO premiums or discounts depending on timing and broader equity conditions such as Treasury yields and fintech multiples. Multiple outcomes clustered near 37-41% reflect uncertainty over whether a 2027 listing occurs and at what scale, with the 27% probability of no IPO by December 31, 2027, highlighting the impact of potential M&A like the PayPal pursuit and ongoing tender liquidity. Key catalysts include any confidential S-1 filing or shifts in employee equity pressure ahead of year-end 2027 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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