OpenAI’s confidential SEC filing in June 2026 and its March $852 billion private valuation underpin the 66.7% market-implied probability of a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion. CEO Sam Altman’s insistence on at least a $1 trillion debut has shifted internal planning toward a potential 2027 listing to secure that premium, while revenue has scaled rapidly toward a $40 billion annualized run rate amid sustained AI demand. Traders appear to price in further multiple expansion from sector momentum and institutional capital inflows, outweighing concerns over ongoing GAAP losses and competitive pressures from peers such as Anthropic. The low 10.8% probability assigned to no IPO by end-2027 reflects expectations that the company will eventually access public markets once valuation targets align with prevailing conditions. Key near-term catalysts include any public S-1 release and updates on capital-raising or infrastructure deals that could influence post-IPO pricing dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1.5T+ 66.7%
1.25T–1.5T 12%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 10.8%
1T–1.25T 7.8%
$211,782 Vol.
$211,782 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
<1%
500–750B
1%
750B–1T
5%
1T–1.25T
8%
1.25T–1.5T
12%
1.5T+
67%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
11%
1.5T+ 66.7%
1.25T–1.5T 12%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 10.8%
1T–1.25T 7.8%
$211,782 Vol.
$211,782 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
$16,923 Vol.
<1%
500–750B
$18,613 Vol.
1%
750B–1T
$45,097 Vol.
5%
1T–1.25T
$24,130 Vol.
8%
1.25T–1.5T
$16,894 Vol.
12%
1.5T+
$48,143 Vol.
67%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$41,983 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s confidential SEC filing in June 2026 and its March $852 billion private valuation underpin the 66.7% market-implied probability of a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion. CEO Sam Altman’s insistence on at least a $1 trillion debut has shifted internal planning toward a potential 2027 listing to secure that premium, while revenue has scaled rapidly toward a $40 billion annualized run rate amid sustained AI demand. Traders appear to price in further multiple expansion from sector momentum and institutional capital inflows, outweighing concerns over ongoing GAAP losses and competitive pressures from peers such as Anthropic. The low 10.8% probability assigned to no IPO by end-2027 reflects expectations that the company will eventually access public markets once valuation targets align with prevailing conditions. Key near-term catalysts include any public S-1 release and updates on capital-raising or infrastructure deals that could influence post-IPO pricing dynamics.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$211,782End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s confidential SEC filing in June 2026 and its March $852 billion private valuation underpin the 66.7% market-implied probability of a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion. CEO Sam Altman’s insistence on at least a $1 trillion debut has shifted internal planning toward a potential 2027 listing to secure that premium, while revenue has scaled rapidly toward a $40 billion annualized run rate amid sustained AI demand. Traders appear to price in further multiple expansion from sector momentum and institutional capital inflows, outweighing concerns over ongoing GAAP losses and competitive pressures from peers such as Anthropic. The low 10.8% probability assigned to no IPO by end-2027 reflects expectations that the company will eventually access public markets once valuation targets align with prevailing conditions. Key near-term catalysts include any public S-1 release and updates on capital-raising or infrastructure deals that could influence post-IPO pricing dynamics.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$211,782End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI’s confidential SEC filing in June 2026 and its March $852 billion private valuation underpin the 66.7% market-implied probability of a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion. CEO Sam Altman’s insistence on at least a $1 trillion debut has shifted internal planning toward a potential 2027 listing to secure that premium, while revenue has scaled rapidly toward a $40 billion annualized run rate amid sustained AI demand. Traders appear to price in further multiple expansion from sector momentum and institutional capital inflows, outweighing concerns over ongoing GAAP losses and competitive pressures from peers such as Anthropic. The low 10.8% probability assigned to no IPO by end-2027 reflects expectations that the company will eventually access public markets once valuation targets align with prevailing conditions. Key near-term catalysts include any public S-1 release and updates on capital-raising or infrastructure deals that could influence post-IPO pricing dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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