Robust revenue growth and persistent investor demand for frontier AI capabilities underpin trader consensus around a 1.5T+ closing market cap for OpenAI, with the 67.3% implied probability reflecting the company's $24B–$40B annualized run rate and recent GPT-6 Astra launch. The June 2026 confidential S-1 filing and subsequent shift toward a 2027 debut—driven by CEO insistence on a $1T floor amid SpaceX volatility—allow time for further scaling before public pricing, outweighing ongoing GAAP losses projected near $62B for 2026. Secondary tenders at the $852B March valuation and underwriter involvement from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley reinforce expectations that market multiples on expanding ARR could support elevated post-IPO levels once the offering clears regulatory review.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1.5T+ 67.3%
1.25T–1.5T 12%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 10.8%
1T–1.25T 7.6%
$211,782 Vol.
$211,782 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
<1%
500–750B
1%
750B–1T
5%
1T–1.25T
8%
1.25T–1.5T
12%
1.5T+
67%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
11%
1.5T+ 67.3%
1.25T–1.5T 12%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 10.8%
1T–1.25T 7.6%
$211,782 Vol.
$211,782 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
$16,923 Vol.
<1%
500–750B
$18,613 Vol.
1%
750B–1T
$45,097 Vol.
5%
1T–1.25T
$24,130 Vol.
8%
1.25T–1.5T
$16,894 Vol.
12%
1.5T+
$48,143 Vol.
67%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$41,983 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Robust revenue growth and persistent investor demand for frontier AI capabilities underpin trader consensus around a 1.5T+ closing market cap for OpenAI, with the 67.3% implied probability reflecting the company's $24B–$40B annualized run rate and recent GPT-6 Astra launch. The June 2026 confidential S-1 filing and subsequent shift toward a 2027 debut—driven by CEO insistence on a $1T floor amid SpaceX volatility—allow time for further scaling before public pricing, outweighing ongoing GAAP losses projected near $62B for 2026. Secondary tenders at the $852B March valuation and underwriter involvement from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley reinforce expectations that market multiples on expanding ARR could support elevated post-IPO levels once the offering clears regulatory review.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$211,782End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Robust revenue growth and persistent investor demand for frontier AI capabilities underpin trader consensus around a 1.5T+ closing market cap for OpenAI, with the 67.3% implied probability reflecting the company's $24B–$40B annualized run rate and recent GPT-6 Astra launch. The June 2026 confidential S-1 filing and subsequent shift toward a 2027 debut—driven by CEO insistence on a $1T floor amid SpaceX volatility—allow time for further scaling before public pricing, outweighing ongoing GAAP losses projected near $62B for 2026. Secondary tenders at the $852B March valuation and underwriter involvement from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley reinforce expectations that market multiples on expanding ARR could support elevated post-IPO levels once the offering clears regulatory review.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$211,782End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Robust revenue growth and persistent investor demand for frontier AI capabilities underpin trader consensus around a 1.5T+ closing market cap for OpenAI, with the 67.3% implied probability reflecting the company's $24B–$40B annualized run rate and recent GPT-6 Astra launch. The June 2026 confidential S-1 filing and subsequent shift toward a 2027 debut—driven by CEO insistence on a $1T floor amid SpaceX volatility—allow time for further scaling before public pricing, outweighing ongoing GAAP losses projected near $62B for 2026. Secondary tenders at the $852B March valuation and underwriter involvement from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley reinforce expectations that market multiples on expanding ARR could support elevated post-IPO levels once the offering clears regulatory review.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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