OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and CEO Sam Altman’s insistence on a $1 trillion-plus IPO valuation have anchored trader expectations for a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion at 66.3% implied probability, reflecting the company’s $852 billion March 2026 private mark, roughly $24 billion annualized revenue run rate, and sustained private funding momentum. Persistent GAAP losses projected near $14 billion for 2026 and post-SpaceX IPO volatility have prompted internal shifts toward a 2027 listing rather than a late-2026 debut, supporting the 10.7% probability assigned to no IPO by end-2027. With Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley leading and no public prospectus or roadshow yet scheduled, upcoming catalysts include any public S-1 release and broader tech-market sentiment that could influence final pricing relative to the current private benchmark.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1.5T+ 66.4%
1.25T–1.5T 12%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 10.8%
1T–1.25T 7.6%
$211,782 Vol.
$211,782 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
<1%
500–750B
1%
750B–1T
5%
1T–1.25T
8%
1.25T–1.5T
12%
1.5T+
66%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
11%
1.5T+ 66.4%
1.25T–1.5T 12%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 10.8%
1T–1.25T 7.6%
$211,782 Vol.
$211,782 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
$16,923 Vol.
<1%
500–750B
$18,613 Vol.
1%
750B–1T
$45,097 Vol.
5%
1T–1.25T
$24,130 Vol.
8%
1.25T–1.5T
$16,894 Vol.
12%
1.5T+
$48,143 Vol.
66%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$41,983 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and CEO Sam Altman’s insistence on a $1 trillion-plus IPO valuation have anchored trader expectations for a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion at 66.3% implied probability, reflecting the company’s $852 billion March 2026 private mark, roughly $24 billion annualized revenue run rate, and sustained private funding momentum. Persistent GAAP losses projected near $14 billion for 2026 and post-SpaceX IPO volatility have prompted internal shifts toward a 2027 listing rather than a late-2026 debut, supporting the 10.7% probability assigned to no IPO by end-2027. With Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley leading and no public prospectus or roadshow yet scheduled, upcoming catalysts include any public S-1 release and broader tech-market sentiment that could influence final pricing relative to the current private benchmark.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$211,782End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and CEO Sam Altman’s insistence on a $1 trillion-plus IPO valuation have anchored trader expectations for a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion at 66.3% implied probability, reflecting the company’s $852 billion March 2026 private mark, roughly $24 billion annualized revenue run rate, and sustained private funding momentum. Persistent GAAP losses projected near $14 billion for 2026 and post-SpaceX IPO volatility have prompted internal shifts toward a 2027 listing rather than a late-2026 debut, supporting the 10.7% probability assigned to no IPO by end-2027. With Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley leading and no public prospectus or roadshow yet scheduled, upcoming catalysts include any public S-1 release and broader tech-market sentiment that could influence final pricing relative to the current private benchmark.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$211,782End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and CEO Sam Altman’s insistence on a $1 trillion-plus IPO valuation have anchored trader expectations for a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion at 66.3% implied probability, reflecting the company’s $852 billion March 2026 private mark, roughly $24 billion annualized revenue run rate, and sustained private funding momentum. Persistent GAAP losses projected near $14 billion for 2026 and post-SpaceX IPO volatility have prompted internal shifts toward a 2027 listing rather than a late-2026 debut, supporting the 10.7% probability assigned to no IPO by end-2027. With Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley leading and no public prospectus or roadshow yet scheduled, upcoming catalysts include any public S-1 release and broader tech-market sentiment that could influence final pricing relative to the current private benchmark.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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